François Cabau

Mar 1, 2024 | axa-im.co.uk | François Cabau |Hugo Le Damany

Written by KEY POINTS We do not expect any decisions at next week’s ECB Governing Council (GC) meeting. Depo rate to remain at 4%. We think GC is likely to stay divided on rate cut timing, pending for crucial wage data, Fed meeting among others. We continue to expect the first rate cut to occur in June. Market pricing has converged to that view. Both growth and inflation forecasts are likely to be revised down.

Feb 28, 2024 | axa-im.co.uk | David Page |François Cabau |Hugo Le Damany

Written by Share & Download Share Key pointsUS growth exceptionalism persists and despite softer retail activity in January there are few signs of the slowdown we continue to expect. Activity has softened elsewhere. The Eurozone saw GDP flat in Q4, just avoiding recession, but manufacturing continued to struggle. The UK entered technical recession in Q4 but should rebound in Q1. Japan also fell into recession in H2 2023.

Feb 2, 2024 | axa-im.co.uk | François Cabau |Hugo Le Damany

Written by Key points:Both euro area headline and core inflation dropped by 0.1 point, respectively to 2.8% y/y and 3.3%, slightly above consensus expectationsAt face value, these are good news. But services inflation is stickier, being flat at 4% for the third successive month.

Jan 30, 2024 | axa-im.co.uk | François Cabau |Hugo Le Damany

Written by Key points:Eurozone GDP growth was flat in Q4 23 coming in between ours and market expectation. 2023 GDP rose by a meagre 0.5% in line with our long held below consensus view. Carry over and forward looking indicators suggest no meaningful change of course this year (AXA IM: 0.3%). While situation differs significantly across countries, expenditure details point to adverse momentum in domestic demand. Latest data points to downside GDP revisions in March by ECB staff.

Jan 22, 2024 | axa-im.co.uk | François Cabau |Hugo Le Damany

Written by Key points:The ECB Governing Council (GC) stayed put on the rates front at its January meeting as widely expected. “High for long” interest rate policy guidance was unchanged, but came with a surprisingly (strong) dovish skew. GC seemingly more uncertain and divided than we thought. Disinflation process is well underway.