Gene Menez

My top pick to win the #KentuckyDerby is 21 Baeza, who is fast, lightly raced and still has room to improve. In the Santa Anita Derby he had to move early to confront Citizen Bull, and that allowed Journalism to catch him. Baeza will be four times the price of Journalism

Trainer Brian Lynch didn't want to run 20 Owen Almighty in the #KentuckyDerby because of the distance of the race, but the owners wanted to run so he's in the gate. The even-money favorite to finish last #KentuckyDerby

Had 19 Chunk of Gold drawn inside, I would've included him in my plays. He's one of the few horses who have shown an ability to run inside. Maybe jockey Jareth Loveberry will get him to the rail anyway. If you like him, I wouldn't talk you off #KentuckyDerby

If a deep closer wins the #KentuckyDerby I think it will be 18 Sovereignty who has been running well at Gulfstream, which isn't friendly to closers. He ran second in the Florida Derby, but Mott was pointing to this Derby not that one. He needs to not lose massive ground though

Could 17 Sandman get another pace meltdown and clean trip and rally to win? Sure. But he's almost certain to lose massive ground around the far turn, and I don't think he's that much better than these to make up for that #KentuckyDerby

I love how 16 Coal Battle ran the turn in the Rebel Stakes, which is a Derby-winning move, but his speed figures rank in the bottom half of the field, and he's a question to get the distance. This is a tough call, but I'm going to pass #KentuckyDerby

15 Render Judgment has lost his last five races by a combined 49 lengths. Pass

Smart handicappers I know like 14 Tiztastic, but I can't get there. Like all closers, he needs pace up front and a clean trip, and certainly could get those. But there are closers I prefer over him #KentuckyDerby

If the pace melts down 13 Publisher has a chance to pick up the pieces with one of the best off-the-pace horses aboard. He also has shown he can run inside horses, which would be huge for him Saturday. He has been training well #KentuckyDerby

12 East Avenue has never passed a horse and his two wins have come on the lead. His job on the front got easier with the scratch of Rodriguez. He has some big figs though and looks to be getting back to form. I don't see him wiring the field, but who knows #KentuckyDerby

11 Flying Mohawk hasn't raced on dirt before, but the connections say the horse will run well on the mud. Pass #KentuckyDerby

9 Burnham Square could get the Mystik Dan trip from last year. Jockey Brian Hernandez isn't afraid to go inside, and this gelding has shown an ability to run inside. He also has been training up a storm. I'm using him #KentuckyDerby

8 Journalism has the top two Beyers in this field. He has the right midpack running style. He also won the Santa Anita Derby despite traffic trouble. Gun to my head, he would be my pick to win, but he's going to be 3-1, and there's better value elsewhere #KentuckyDerby

7 Luxor Cafe showed tremendous acceleration in winning his prep race in Japan. He figures to be forwardly placed and in position at the top of the stretch. My concern is that he has been ridden wide recently, and that isn't the recipe for success. Contender #KentuckyDerby

6 Admire Daytona showed guts in setting the pace and holding off a host of challengers in winning the UAE Derby. He's lost multiple times to Luxor Cafe though. Pass

5 American Promise is getting good at the right time if you believe that figure from the Virginia Derby. Lukas says the horse has blossomed since that race. The colt figures to be forwardly placed and could be dangerous if the pace doesn't heat up too much #KentuckyDerby

3 Final Gambit has never run on dirt, but he is bred for it and training well. How will he handle dirt in his face though? If he handles it well, he could come running late with his kick and inside draw. Interesting underneath #KentuckyDerby