Giorgio Cafiero

Washington, D.C., United States

CEO @GulfStateAnalyt Adjunct Assistant Professor @Georgetown Adjunct Fellow @AmSecProject Bylines: @The_NewArab @StimsonCenter @AmwajMedia @AtlanticCouncil

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Articles

Israel and the new Syria: Where are ties heading?

3 weeks ago | newarab.com | Giorgio Cafiero

Since Bashar Al-Assad’s regime fell in late 2024, constant Israeli airstrikes have targeted Syria’s military infrastructure in locations across the war-torn country. Israeli forces have also advanced into the UN-monitored demilitarised buffer zone separating Syria from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, as well as into adjacent regions, including the summit of Mount Hermon.
Iran struggling for relevance in post-Assad Syria

1 month ago | responsiblestatecraft.org | Giorgio Cafiero

Of all powers in the Middle East, none did as much as Iran to help President Bashar al-Assad weather the Syrian civil war. When Assad’s regime fell in late 2024 to a coalition of rebel groups led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Tehran lost its closest Arab ally, constituting a major crisis and humiliating setback for Iran.
Why US-Iran talks justify cautious optimism about a nuclear deal

1 month ago | newarab.com | Giorgio Cafiero

Since 12 April, there have been five rounds of American-Iranian nuclear talks, held in Muscat and Rome under Omani auspices. These negotiations have yet to lead to a breakthrough. Yet, as fragile as they are, the talks appear to have some momentum. This offers a measure of cautious optimism that Washington and Tehran might bridge their differences and agree to a renewed nuclear deal seven years after the US unilaterally withdrew from the landmark 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Trump’s Gulf Tour and the Emphasis on AI

1 month ago | orionpolicy.org | Giorgio Cafiero

President Donald J. Trump’s Gulf tour this month—with visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—marked a pivotal moment in US relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)’s wealthiest and most geopolitically influential members. As economic ties deepen, especially in the high-stakes realm of artificial intelligence (AI), collaboration between Washington and its Gulf Arab partners becomes more crucial than ever.
Results from Trump’s Visit to the Middle East

1 month ago | warontherocks.com | Kerry Anderson |Anna Jacobs |Giorgio Cafiero

Last week, President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates — his first major trip abroad during his second term in the White House. The region has experienced significant changes since Trump’s 2017 visit, during his first term as president — including the current war in Gaza and its regional consequences, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and improved relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Gulf tour: Trump sidelined Israel, but how deep is the rift?

1 month ago | newarab.com | Giorgio Cafiero

When President Donald J. Trump was running for a second term last year, the Israeli leadership did a bad job of hiding their preference for him over then-President Joe Biden or then-Vice President Kamala Harris. On 24 July 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before a joint session of Congress while in Washington. Many analysts interpreted that move as the Israeli leader meddling in US domestic politics with the intent of helping Trump in the presidential race.
Trump's wise, bold Syria reset

1 month ago | responsiblestatecraft.org | Giorgio Cafiero

President Trump kicked off his Gulf tour this week in Saudi Arabia. While delivering a speech at the Saudi Arabia Investment Forum earlier on Tuesday, Trump announced the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria. "After discussing the situation in Syria with the Crown Prince [Mohammed bin Salman (MbS)] and also with President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan of Turkey, who called me the other day and asked for a very similar thing ...
How Trump's pact with the Houthis left Israel in the cold

1 month ago | newarab.com | Giorgio Cafiero

US President Donald J. Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to begin his Gulf tour, which will also include visits to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While meeting with high-ranking officials in these three Gulf Cooperation Council members, he will address a host of sensitive regional and global issues. One of them will be Yemen.
Gulf Arab Engagement with Russia

1 month ago | orionpolicy.org | Giorgio Cafiero

Last month, the Emir of Qatar and the Sultan of Oman visited Moscow, where they met with President Vladimir Putin. These visits to the Kremlin highlight Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members’ efforts to deepen ties with Russia across geopolitical, security, energy, economic, and diplomatic fronts. Such engagements affirm Moscow’s enduring influence in the Arab world despite the blow to Russia’s regional standing following former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster five months ago.
What to expect from Trump's high-stakes Middle East visit

1 month ago | newarab.com | Giorgio Cafiero

In mid-May, US President Donald J. Trump will visit the Gulf. His destinations will be Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Saudi Arabia was supposed to be his first foreign trip since returning to the Oval Office this year, as it was in May 2017 during his first term, but the death of Pope Francis brought Trump to Italy and the Vatican several days ago.