Graeme Roy

Toronto

Visual Content Curator at The Canadian Press

Visual Content Curator, The Canadian Press. Follow me on IG @g_wah

Articles

Trade discussions jeopardised by simple zero-sum maths

3 weeks ago | heraldscotland.com | Graeme Roy

The idea of the benefits of trade dates back to Adam Smith (Image: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty) Later this month at the Scottish Fiscal Commission we will publish updated forecasts for the Scottish economy. In normal times, six months is a short period to expect much difference in the economic outlook. However, recent years have seen a rise in unexpected events, from Covid to the cost-of-living crisis, making the outlook more susceptible to change.
'Scotland’s different population dynamics mean we face challenges sooner'

1 month ago | heraldscotland.com | Graeme Roy

The funding the Scottish Government receives via the Barnett Formula is based on population share, not the age profile of that population (Image: Gordon Terris) Last week at the Scottish Fiscal Commission we published our latest report examining the long-term sustainability of Scotland’s public finances. The analysis spans the next 50 years and sets out some of the fiscal pressures we are likely to face.
When a Spring Cleaning isn’t Needed

2 months ago | niesr.ac.uk | Adrian Pabst |Graeme Roy |Anton Muscatelli |Stephen Millard

But this static exercise of balancing the books is short sighted. The fiscal rules are supposed to confer the sustainability of the public finances. In other words, ensure that the growth of debt as a share of national income remains bounded. However, sustainability is a complex artefact, composed of both past actions and future expectations – and these rules do not capture the nuanced position in which the UK economy currently sits.
Evaluating the Chancellor’s 2025 Spring Statement

2 months ago | niesr.ac.uk | Graeme Roy |Anton Muscatelli |Adrian Pabst |Stephen Millard

Will the Spring Statement help to raise economic growth? The outlook for the United Kingdom’s trend growth remains subdued. After years of hovering around 1 per cent per year, growth will pick up as a result of the fiscal stimulus announced in the October 2024 Budget and also the increased defence spending confirmed by the Chancellor in Wednesday’s Spring Statement.
No time to wait for Trump to dictate UK's economic future

Mar 10, 2025 | heraldscotland.com | Graeme Roy

The Prime Minister has attempted to engage Donald Trump in the hope of securing tariff exemptions (Image: PA) Donald Trump’s return to the White House has upended long-standing norms in global diplomacy and security. His stance on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are not only unsettling but have heightened uncertainty in global markets. But beyond geopolitics, Trump’s economic policies could also have profound consequences for the UK and Scotland.
Bond Markets and the UK’s Public Finances: What’s Been Going On?

Feb 24, 2025 | niesr.ac.uk | Graeme Roy |Anton Muscatelli |Adrian Pabst |Stephen Millard

Ten-year gilt yields rose from 3.9% in September 2024 to 4.4% in December 2024. This was followed by large fluctuations in January 2025, reaching a high of 4.9% before coming back to just over 4.5% today. Such increases are not unique to the UK, but part of a global trend that is partly led by rising bond yields in the United States. Bond yields are the annual returns on bond investments, expressed as a proportion of the bond price.
Tired narrative speaks to narrow view of UK economic prosperity

Feb 9, 2025 | heraldscotland.com | Graeme Roy

Talk of a 'UK Silicon Valley' around the Cambridge-Oxford-London triangle give the impression that Whitehall favours the concentration of wealth in London and its hinterlands (Image: PA) The Chancellor promised in a major speech last month that the UK Government will "fight" for economic growth. Indeed, growth is to be the "number one mission" of the government. In many ways, this narrative is reminiscent of the early years of the first SNP-led Scottish Government in 2007.
Here's one reason to start 2025 with a sense of optimism

Jan 12, 2025 | heraldscotland.com | Graeme Roy

The commitment to base GB Energy in Aberdeen offers a promising framework for collaboration (Image: Getty) Last summer I wrote about the renewed optimism surrounding the global economy. Inflation in most leading economies appeared to be heading back toward target levels, interest rates were stabilising at more neutral levels, and the growth outlook was the most promising it had been in several years.
Upward revisions reflect slightly more positive outlook for Scotland

Dec 8, 2024 | heraldscotland.com | Graeme Roy

Upward revisions reflect slightly more positive outlook for Scotland (Image: Jeff J Mitchell) Last Wednesday at the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC), we published updated forecasts for Scotland’s economy and public finances. Our work provides the backdrop for the Cabinet Secretary for Finance's tax and spending plans for 2025/26 and beyond.
Does style overshadow substance in Scots economic debate?

Nov 10, 2024 | heraldscotland.com | Graeme Roy

By Graeme Roy I’ve been wanting to write an article for some time on Scotland’s economic journey since devolution. With encouragement from a colleague at the University of Glasgow – David Waite – and my former boss in the Scottish Government – Andrew Goudie – our paper: "Scotland’s Economy after 25 Years of Devolution," is now published by the journal Scottish Affairs. It’s free to access for the next few weeks on the Edinburgh University Press website. It was great fun writing with Andrew.