Hervé Lemahieu

Sep 19, 2024 | lowyinstitute.org | Hervé Lemahieu

How do you convince the American foreign policy establishment, squarely fixated on China, that the regional context in which US-China competition takes place matters? And how do you unpick the battle of narratives about how that regional competition is playing out? That was the task Susannah Patton and I set ourselves in an article published this week in Foreign Affairs. Fatalists believe China is already an unassailably dominant force in Asia.

Sep 13, 2024 | foreignaffairs.com | Susannah Patton |Hervé Lemahieu

Debates about the balance of power in Asia typically rely on one of three views. Some analysts believe, fatalistically, that China has become an unassailably dominant force in the region. Others place continued faith in U.S. primacy and see China as weak, vulnerable, and ultimately containable. Still others, including U.S. allies such as Australia and Japan, tout the emergence of a multipolar Indo-Pacific that could arrest China’s ambitions for regional hegemony.

Aug 16, 2024 | apo.org.au | Hervé Lemahieu |Michael Fullilove |Richard McGregor

Description On 5 November 2024, Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president. The choice is between Donald Trump, running for a second, non-consecutive term at the helm of a Republican Party moulded firmly in his image, and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, whose surprise elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket has re-energised her party.

Jul 6, 2023 | afr.com | Hervé Lemahieu

We’re a world away from Indonesia occupying the place it did in Australia’s strategic imagination circa 1995. Keating-era mythologies about the pre-eminence of the partnership have ossified into platitudes. But Australia has moved on from that era in profound ways. Indonesia will remain a hedger of China even as Australia becomes ever more the balancer.

Feb 6, 2023 | afr.com | Hervé Lemahieu

Depending on how it plays its cards, Australia is on the cusp of securing its position among the five most powerful states in the Indo-Pacific, alongside two superpowers, the United States and China, as well as Japan and India. What makes Australia so successful in the region’s only data-driven ranking of power? Above all, Australia avoids many of the pitfalls experienced by the region’s major powers.