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Nov 14, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Ian Hill
The Kremlin’s public response to Donald Trump’s election victory has been restrained. But this guarded indifference is disingenuous, and, while there are risks for Russia, the Kremlin will welcome Trump’s return as a positive for Moscow. Why? After all, Trump didn’t always live up to expectations in Moscow during his first term.
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Oct 9, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Ian Hill
Russian President Vladimir Putin will host the 25th BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan on 22–24 October. It comes at a time when BRICS – comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and subsequently South Africa – faces an inflection point.
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Sep 2, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Ian Hill
Intense diplomatic efforts are underway involving the United States, Egypt and Qatar to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, and avoid growing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalating into outright conflict, with the risk that this might trigger a wider regional war, drawing in Iran. Yet one external player is absent from this regional diplomacy – Russia. At one level, this is surprising. For decades, Russia has positioned, and portrayed, itself as a key player in Middle East affairs.
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Aug 15, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Ian Hill
August, supposedly a quiet summer holiday month in Russia, has instead often witnessed key events in the country’s recent history. Recall the failed coup against Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991, which precipitated the final collapse of the USSR; the 1998 rouble crisis; the sinking of the submarine Kursk in 2000; and the 2008 Russia-Georgia war. So perhaps Ukraine’s unexpected military incursion into Kursk Oblast last week shouldn’t have surprised President Vladimir Putin.
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Aug 12, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Ian Hill
With attention focused on the Middle East and Ukraine, it’s unsurprising that developments in the South Caucasus haven’t attracted wider attention. Yet major geopolitical shifts are underway in this strategically located region. Some of this will become increasingly apparent as the eyes of the world swing to Azerbaijan as host of the upcoming COP29 climate change talks.
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Jun 27, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Ian Hill
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit last week to Pyongyang and Hanoi captured headlines around the world. But it was hardly unexpected – indeed, a logical step in Russia’s post-Ukraine invasion tilt to Asia seeking friends and markets. Hitherto, the focus of Russia’s Asia diplomacy has been on China. Moscow’s estrangement from the West after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has pushed it closer to Beijing for compelling political, security and economic reasons.
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Apr 3, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Ian Hill
Russia’s worst domestic terrorist attack since the Beslan school siege 20 years ago has exposed some uncomfortable truths for the Kremlin. There seems no reason to doubt Islamic State-Khorasan’s (IS-K) claim of responsibility for the atrocity that left 144 confirmed deaths at Crocus City Hall in Moscow. Yet the Kremlin has been quick to blame Ukraine, without providing any evidence. That’s not surprising.
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Feb 15, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Ian Hill
The political squabbles in the United States and Europe over continued aid to Ukraine epitomise the wider problem facing Kyiv’s backers: how to sustain popular, and thus, political support to continue backing what may prove a long war. It is now two years on from Moscow’s February 2022 invasion – far longer, if the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea is considered the starting point.
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Dec 18, 2023 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Ian Hill
As 2023 draws to a close, Vladimir Putin must be surveying the world with some satisfaction and confidence. That’s certainly the impression the Russian President conveyed in his showpiece press conference in Moscow last week. And, unfortunately, not without reason. The war in Ukraine may be deadlocked for now, but Putin thinks it’s going Moscow’s way. Russia succeeded in blunting the Ukrainian summer counter-offensive and has now gone back on the offensive.
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Nov 24, 2023 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Ian Hill
Recent steps towards closer Russia-North Korea relations have been met with concern and apprehension in the United States and South Korea. In September, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pledged support for Russia’s “fight against imperialism” in Ukraine, describing relations with Moscow as Pyongyang’s “top priority”.
