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2 months ago | 
reaction.life | Ian Stewart
The financial crisis of 2008-09 brought an end to a long period of rapid globalisation. In its place has emerged protectionism, heightened focus on national security, and increasingly strained international relations. Three fundamental forces explain this shift from hyper-globalisation to deglobalisation. First, China's emergence as a global superpower has transformed international relations.
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2 months ago | 
thenational.scot | Ian Stewart
The SNP’s ballot paper manifesto should state “Vote SNP for independence” on line one. No ambiguity, says Ian Stewart A NEW year has begun, a year that could define Scotland’s right to independence. Does anyone seriously doubt that a second failure to command a significant majority support through the ballot paper in the coming 2026 Scottish Parliament election will consign our cause to the dustbin of history?
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Jan 13, 2025 | 
reaction.life | Ian Stewart
The latest Deloitte CFO Survey, conducted between 3 and 16 December, among chief financial officers of the UK’s largest companies shows a decline in business optimism although it remains well above the lows experienced in 2020 and 2022. CFOs enter 2025 with a focus on cost control and with cost reduction emerging as the main response to the forthcoming increase in National Insurance Contributions (NICs).
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Jan 13, 2025 | 
thenational.scot | Ian Stewart
LIKE many in our movement, the Scottish Currency Group (SCG) has been encouraged by recent reports of increasing support for independence. We particularly note that, according to research commissioned by Believe in Scotland (BIS), this is strengthened if the independence proposal contains a commitment to a “wellbeing” Scotland.
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Dec 9, 2024 | 
reaction.life | Ian Stewart
Ian Stewart’s Christmas quiz offers a test of your knowledge of the festive season, economics, politics and sport, in 12 questions. The answers and a brief explanation of the factors at work are provided at the end. 1. Which one of the following Christmas films has the highest box office takings after adjusting for inflation? a) Die Hard (1988)b) Home Alone (1990)c) Love Actually (2003)d) It’s a Wonderful Life (1946)2.
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Dec 2, 2024 | 
reaction.life | Ian Stewart
Last week, new data showed that net migration into the UK in 2023 reached a record high of 866,000. Many migrants arrive to work, and their earnings help boost GDP growth. High levels of migration ensured that the UK economy just about kept growing in 2023 despite falling into recession in the second half of the year. UK GDP rose by 0.3% in 2023. Without migration, GDP would have contracted. GDP per UK inhabitant, or capita, fell by 0.7% in 2023. This illustrates an important distinction.
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Nov 25, 2024 | 
reaction.life | Ian Stewart
Efforts to slow the pace of climate change have focussed on improving energy efficiency and switching to renewable energy sources. Some argue that the world needs a more radical approach, one that limits carbon emissions by ending the drive for economic growth itself. The environment has suffered as economies have grown. As the Japanese economist, Yoichi Kaya, observed, carbon emissions are a product of population, GDP per capita, energy efficiency and carbon intensity.
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Nov 18, 2024 | 
reaction.life | Ian Stewart
In many respects the UK economy has proved surprisingly resilient in the face of the big shocks of the last decade and a half – everything from the financial crisis to Brexit, the pandemic and the 2022 energy shock. Barring the short-lived contraction at the onset of the pandemic, the UK has not faced a serious recession for 15 years. House prices have risen 26% since January 2019 and today stand at their highest levels, according to the Halifax.
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Nov 11, 2024 | 
reaction.life | Ian Stewart
The last fortnight has seen a flurry of significant events, from the UK budget on 30 October to Donald Trump’s election victory, interest rate cuts in the US and UK and, on Friday, China’s announcement of a new stimulus programme designed to boost growth. This week, we offer some brief reflections on these events. US equities rallied on the Trump victory, with the S&P 500 ending the week up by 4% and the Russell 2000 index, of small-cap US firms, up by over 7%.
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Nov 4, 2024 | 
reactionpolitics.substack.com | Ian Stewart
Last week’s UK Budget represented a major reset for fiscal policy. In an apparent acceptance of a permanent increase in the size of the state, the chancellor raised taxes, borrowing and expenditure significantly. Taxes are on course to hit a peacetime high as a share of GDP. Public expenditure is set to run at around 45% of GDP through this parliament, four percentage points higher than before the pandemic, and a level that has only been seen briefly, during recessions, since 1948.
