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Nov 8, 2024 | 
independent.co.uk | James Johnson
The Wednesday before election day I was in Detroit. After months of conducting interviews, focus groups and surveys, I asked my last question of a voter in this election. Sheree is a Black 31-year-old single mother. She voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, sat out 2020, and was undecided in 2024.
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Nov 6, 2024 | 
thespectator.com | Matt McDonald |Ben Domenech |Roger Kimball |James Johnson
Washington, DCVice President Kamala Harris finally took the stage at her alma mater, Washington, DC’s Howard University — a day later than anticipated, to deliver a twelve-minute concession speech.
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Nov 6, 2024 | 
thespectator.com | Ben Domenech |Roger Kimball |James Johnson |Owen Matthews
Every election has winners and losers that extend beyond the politicians themselves, but in this particularly unique situation, the sheer number of outside individuals, movements and institutions who can be categorized as winning or losing based on last night’s sweeping result for Donald Trump and Republicans is astounding. Winner: the bro army and its defenders.
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Nov 6, 2024 | 
thespectator.com | Roger Kimball |James Johnson |Owen Matthews |Daniel McCarthy
Bishop Butler once observed that probability is “the very guide of life.” This is true. It follows that possibility is cheap, an errant muse. Yes, we must stash away in the back of our mind the admonition that “in this life… we must always distinguish between the Unlikely and the Impossible” (that’s the philosopher R. Psmith, courtesy of P.G. Wodehouse). Nevertheless, we should not run our lives or write our columns on that basis. “Why Trump won.” That is my assignment.
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Nov 6, 2024 | 
thespectator.com | James Johnson |Owen Matthews |Daniel McCarthy |Zack Christenson
Trump is headed to the White House. As I write, that is the consensus of almost all political experts. Trump is set to pick up at least one — and possibly all three — of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It looks likely Trump will win all seven swing states. Cohn also projects a Trump lead in the popular vote. That would be the first time a Republican has won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. There will be many postmortems to come, including from my firm, J.L. Partners.
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Nov 6, 2024 | 
conservativehome.com | James Johnson
James Johnson is co-founder of JL Partners. He was the Senior Opinion Research and Strategy Adviser to Theresa May as Prime Minister, 2016-2019.. The 2024 race has defied expectations and upended conventional wisdom, with Donald Trump now leading projections across the board, including in pivotal swing states. (Most expectations; J.L. Partners, my firm, is set to have the most accurate election forecast). With Fox News calling Pennsylvania for Trump moments ago, he is firmly poised for victory.
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Nov 4, 2024 | 
telegraph.co.uk | James Johnson
If a pollster says they know who is going to win, they’re lying Credit: RYAN COLLERDRYAN M.
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Nov 4, 2024 | 
nypost.com | James Johnson
Raymond Sena, 64, is about to retire from working for the city of Phoenix. His parents are Mexican and he has always voted Democrat. But not this year. “I know I’m supposed to be pro opening the border but I’m not,” he says. “They have to come over here legally. It used to people from Mexico — now it’s China, and Arab. Venezuelans are in El Paso complaining about our food, after we have helped them cross. Who the hell do they think they are?”His words sound angry but his tone is despondent.
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Nov 4, 2024 | 
next-america.com | James Johnson
First things first: our model for Iowa remains at a 96.3% chance of a Trump victory in the Hawkeye State. That sums up our view of Selzer, which showed a 3 point lead for Harris on the weekend: it goes into the model alongside all the other polls and is treated as such. Thanks for reading The Next America! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. We do not believe any one poll should transform a view of the race.
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Nov 3, 2024 | 
dailymail.co.uk | James Johnson
A new presidential poll has shocked the nation in the closing days of the 2024 election. Ann Selzer, a well-respected political pollster, released a survey on Saturday finding Vice President Kamala Harris had suddenly surged to a three percentage point-lead in Iowa. The surprising outlier survey made headlines across the country as the VP has been widely expected to lose the Hawkeye State – by a lot. Iowa has been solidly red for years.
