James Picerno
Editor, US Business Cycle Risk Report, https://t.co/qclMswULhy, author (Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R), dir of analytics:The Milwaukee Co
Articles
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16 hours ago |
seekingalpha.com | James Picerno
Apr. 24, 2025 12:10 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryPresident Trump says he doesn’t plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell, but the calls for rate cuts continue. The central bank, however, is expected to leave rates unchanged at next month’s policy meeting. The Fed funds futures market this morning is pricing in a 94% probability for no change in the target rate at the upcoming May 7 FOMC meeting.
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17 hours ago |
flipboard.com | James Picerno
Federal Reserve says consumer distress is at a 12-year high and credit cards are the canary in the coal mine — How to escape the financial and personal costs of crushing debtWhile investors worry about the markets, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is raising the alarm about another economic indicator: credit-card …
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20 hours ago |
investing.com | James Picerno
President Trump says he doesn’t plan to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but the calls for rate cuts continue. The central bank, however, is expected to leave at the next month’s policy meeting. For the moment, it’s still a battle of the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump said “I might call [Powell]. I haven’t called him, but I believe he’s making a mistake by not lowering interest rates. He will hopefully do the right thing.
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22 hours ago |
capitalspectator.com | James Picerno
US economic activity continues to slow in April, according to PMI survey data. Output rose last month at its slowest pace since Dec 2023 via the US Composite Output Index, a GDP proxy. “The early flash PMI data for April point to a marked slowing of business activity growth at the start of the second quarter, accompanied by a slump in optimism about the outlook,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which published the report.
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1 day ago |
seekingalpha.com | James Picerno
Apr. 23, 2025 7:55 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryNext week’s initial estimate for US GDP in the first quarter is on track for a sharp downshift in growth. Today’s revised median nowcast extends a string of sharply softer Q1 estimates in recent weeks. The more worrisome aspect of today’s Q1 data: it doesn’t yet reflect the extreme trade-related turmoil that’s roiling the US and the global economy.
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Global stocks ex-US (VXUS) continue to recover lost ground: https://t.co/s6AFHVX0Ab
Despite President Trump's recent efforts to persuade Fed Chairman Powell to cut rates, Fed funds futures continue to price in a high probability (90%) of no change at the next FOMC meeting on May 7: https://t.co/SuHzwARvU2 https://t.co/0VGWcBOSjr
Highlighting the trend via weekly data suggests that the bearish bias still looks strong for the US shares (S&P 500): https://t.co/LnmsE9UXRT
