James Picerno

18 hours ago | seekingalpha.com | James Picerno

SummaryYear to date, fixed-income securities ex-US are outperforming the investment-grade US benchmark for bonds by a hefty degree, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close. The weakest foreign-bond performer in 2025: high-yield bonds in emerging markets, with a 2.1% rise, although that still exceeds the 1.5% increase for the US benchmark.

22 hours ago | investing.com | James Picerno

Global diversification for bonds has been a tough sell in recent years, but 2025 is another story. Year to date, fixed-income securities ex-US are outperforming the investment-grade US benchmark for bonds by a hefty degree, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (May 14). Leading the rally: foreign inflation-indexed government bonds. SPDR FTSE International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF (NYSE:) is up 7.6% this year.

23 hours ago | capitalspectator.com | James Picerno

The US federal deficit is projected to increase by $3.8 trillion through 2034, or 1.1% of GDP, based on the bill that passed on Wednesday in the House Ways and Means Committee. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.54% on Wednesday, the highest close in three months. China to US bookings for container transport surged almost 300% after the announcement of a pause in tariffs between the two countries.

1 day ago | seekingalpha.com | James Picerno

May 14, 2025 9:40 AM ET, , , , , , , , , SummaryThe US 10-year yield was steady in April in terms of the market premium relative to a “fair value” estimate. A key question for the bond market in the weeks and months ahead: Will tariff-related inflation emerge and push the market premium higher? Another factor that could bring upward pressure to yields is the perceived decline in US government bonds as a safe havens.

1 day ago | capitalspectator.com | James Picerno

The US 10-year yield was steady in April in terms of the market premium relative to a “fair value” estimate. The 10-year yield’s monthly average last month remained mostly unchanged at roughly 40 basis points-plus over the average fair value via three models run by CapitalSpectator.com. The current average monthly fair-value estimate is 3.84%, which remains below the actual 10-year yield.