Jiwei Tian

May 9, 2024 | nature.com | Wei Zhao |Zhao Xu |Jiwei Tian |Zhao Jing |Zhiwei Zhang |Yihan Zhang | +13 more

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are devastating natural disasters. Analyzing four decades of global TC data, here we find that among all global TC-active basins, the South China Sea (SCS) stands out as particularly difficult ocean for TCs to intensify, despite favorable atmosphere and ocean conditions. Over the SCS, TC intensification rate and its probability for a rapid intensification (intensification by ≥ 15.4 m s−1 day−1) are only 1/2 and 1/3, respectively, of those for the rest of the world ocean. Originating from complex interplays between astronomic tides and the SCS topography, gigantic ocean internal tides interact with TC-generated oceanic near-inertial waves and induce a strong ocean cooling effect, suppressing the TC intensification. Inclusion of this interaction between internal tides and TC in operational weather prediction systems is expected to improve forecast of TC intensity in the SCS and in other regions where strong internal tides are present. The authors show that the presence of strong ocean internal tides in the South China Sea suppresses tropical cyclone intensification, mitigating their impacts on the highly populated surrounding regions.