John Butters

Vice-President and Senior Earnings Analyst, FactSet Research Systems at FactSet

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S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: April 17, 2025

1 week ago | insight.factset.com | John Butters

At this early stage, the first quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 is off to a weaker start than average compared to expectations. Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are below recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the first quarter today relative to the end of last week, but flat earnings relative to the end of the quarter.
Will S&P 500 Companies Withdraw EPS Guidance for 2025?

1 week ago | insight.factset.com | John Butters

During each corporate earnings season, companies often provide guidance on expected earnings for future quarters or for the full year. However, given the uncertainty around tariffs, will companies have difficulty providing an estimate for future earnings? To date, how many companies in the S&P 500 have provided or updated EPS guidance for 2025 during the Q1 earnings season? Have any S&P 500 companies withdrawn or not confirmed previous annual EPS guidance for 2025?
S&P 500 Will Likely Report Earnings Growth Above 10% for Q1

1 week ago | insight.factset.com | John Butters

The S&P 500 is currently expected to report earnings growth of 7.3% for the first quarter, which would mark the seventh consecutive quarter of (year-over-year) earnings growth for the index. Given that most S&P 500 companies report actual earnings above estimates, what is the likelihood the index will report earnings growth of 7.3% for the quarter?
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2025 is Projected to Rise 2.6% Year-Over-Year

2 weeks ago | insight.factset.com | John Butters

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of March 2025 is 2.6%. If 2.6% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the second consecutive month the number has decreased. It will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 2.9%. The February 2025 consumer price index increased by 2.8% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 2.9%.
S&P 500 Financials Sector Earnings Preview: Q1 2025

2 weeks ago | insight.factset.com | John Butters

The Financials sector will be a focus for the market during the next two weeks, as nearly 60% of the S&P 500 companies that are scheduled to report earnings for the first quarter over this period are part of this sector, including American Express, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Travelers Companies, and Wells Fargo.
Analysts Made Larger Cuts Than Average to EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies for Q1

2 weeks ago | insight.factset.com | John Butters

Given concerns in the market about inflation and tariffs, did analysts lower EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the first quarter? The answer is yes. During the first quarter, analysts lowered EPS estimates by a larger margin compared to the three most recent averages. The Q1 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q1 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 4.2% (to $60.23 from $62.89) from December 31 to March 31.
U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Projected to Rise to 4.2% for March 2025

3 weeks ago | insight.factset.com | John Butters

The median estimate for the unemployment rate for the month of March 2025 is 4.2%. If 4.2% is the actual unemployment rate, it will mark the highest number since November 2024 (4.2%). It will also be slightly above the trailing 12-month average of 4.1%. The February 2025 unemployment rate was 4.1% compared to the median estimate of 4.0%.
More S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative EPS Guidance for Q1 Than Average

3 weeks ago | insight.factset.com | John Butters

Overall, 107 S&P 500 companies have issued quarterly EPS guidance for the first quarter. Of these companies, 68 have issued negative EPS guidance and 39 have issued positive EPS guidance. The number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance is above the 5-year average of 57 and above the 10-year average of 62. On the other hand, the number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance for the fourth quarter is below the 5-year average of 42 but above the 10-year average of 38.
Industry Analysts Project 21% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over the Next 12 Months

3 weeks ago | insight.factset.com | John Butters

After declining by more than 4% since the end of February, where do industry analysts believe the price of the S&P 500 will go from here? Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a price increase of 21.3% over the next twelve months. This percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index as of yesterday (March 27).
Where Are Analysts Most Optimistic on Ratings for S&P 500 Companies Heading into Q2?

1 month ago | insight.factset.com | John Butters

With the start of the second quarter approaching, where are analysts most optimistic and pessimistic in terms of their ratings on stocks in the S&P 500? Overall, there are 12,320 ratings on stocks in the S&P 500. Of these ratings, 55.7% are Buy ratings, 38.7% are Hold ratings, and 5.6% are Sell ratings. The percentage of Buy ratings is above its 5-year (month-end) average of 55.0%. The percentage Hold ratings is below its 5-year (month-end) average of 39.1%.