John Curtice

United Kingdom

Official Twitter account for https://t.co/vkAV46nHEq. Analysis of polls on #Brexit before and since #euref. Run by @Natcen. Tweets by John Curtice.

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Articles

Who can knock out Mr Farage?

1 week ago | spectator.com.au | John Curtice

David Cameron’s promise of an EU referendum in 2013 was designed to head off the apparent challenge to his party’s election hopes that was being posed by Nigel Farage’s Ukip. Although Ukip still did well in the 2015 election, the Conservatives won an overall majority. Unfortunately for Mr Cameron, he lost the subsequent referendum, and his party was then tossed into years of turmoil over how the decision to leave should be implemented.
Who can knockout Mr Farage?

1 week ago | spectator.co.uk | John Curtice

David Cameron’s promise of an EU referendum in 2013 was designed to head off the apparent challenge to his party’s election hopes that was being posed by Nigel Farage’s Ukip. Although Ukip still did well in the 2015 election, the Conservatives won an overall majority. Unfortunately for Mr Cameron, he lost the subsequent referendum, and his party was then tossed into years of turmoil over how the decision to leave should be implemented.
The map that reveals the extent of Reform's triumph

1 week ago | bbc.com | John Curtice

Sir John Curtice: The map that shows Reform's triumph was much more than a protest voteSir John CurticeProfessor of politics at the University of StrathclydeBBCThere is no doubt that Reform performed well in Thursday's local council elections. The party won most votes, most seats and overall control of most councils. True, the party's share of the votes cast across all 23 councils where elections took place on Thursday was no more than 31%.
John Curtice: Labour’s problem on Thursday was not simply Reform - it was also itself

1 week ago | independent.co.uk | John Curtice

VoicesHow the votes at the local elections were spread will give concern for Labour as much as Tories, says politics professor and electoral analyst Sir John CurticeDespite the significant fall in Labour’s support in the polls, the party hoped to escape without much visible damage in the local elections on Thursday.
Reform's by-election win outstrips Ukip record

1 week ago | thetimes.com | John Curtice
Reform challenging Conservative and Labour dominance

1 week ago | bbc.com | John Curtice

Sir John Curtice: Reform challenging traditional party dominanceJohn CurticeProfessor of politics at the University of StrathclydeBBCThe overnight results from Thursday's elections have confirmed the message of the polls that Reform are posing a major challenge to the traditional dominance of British politics enjoyed by the Conservatives and Labour. The party won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, just managing to overturn a 35-point Labour majority.
Whatever happens in the local elections, the mainstream is dead

2 weeks ago | yahoo.com | John Curtice

Elections in Britain are usually a battle between the Conservatives and Labour. If one is up, the other is down. But Thursday’s local elections could leave both parties facing significant questions about their future. Last year’s general election was disastrous for the Conservatives. With just 24 per cent of the vote in Great Britain, the party slumped to its worse defeat since the party’s foundation in 1832. Trouble is, there is still no sign of recovery.
Whatever happens in the local elections, the mainstream is dead

2 weeks ago | telegraph.co.uk | John Curtice
'Reform UK may have just enough support to win hundreds of seats from Tories'

3 weeks ago | msn.com | John Curtice

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JOHN CURTICE: 'Reform UK may have just enough support to win hundreds of seats from Tories'

3 weeks ago | mirror.co.uk | John Curtice

The local elections on May 1 st take place in unprecedented circumstances. Never before have both Labour, whose current average poll rating is just 24%, and the Conservatives, on 22%, been so unpopular at the same time. Both are struggling to keep pace with Reform, narrowly ahead on 25%. British politics was once a two-horse race between Conservative and Labour. Now it is a fragmented five-way battle.