John Curtice

3 days ago | theconversation.com | John Curtice

The outcome of last year’s general election left an important question hanging in the air. Could the UK’s traditional system of two-party politics continue to survive? True, power did change hands in a familiar fashion. A majority Conservative government was replaced by a majority Labour one. Indeed, the new administration won an overall majority of no less than 174. However, the new government was elected with a lower share of the vote than that secured by any previous majority government.

3 weeks ago | telegraph.co.uk | John Curtice

Between a fifth and a quarter of those who voted Conservative in last year's general election are now backing Reform. The outcome in Hamilton confirms that, as a result of the rise of Reform, the Conservatives are at risk of recording their worst-ever performance in a Scottish Parliament election next year and could find themselves occupying a much diminished space in the Holyrood chamber as only the fourth-largest party.

3 weeks ago | aol.co.uk | John Curtice

Reform UK threatens to eclipse the Conservatives north of the border, while severely denting Labour’s hopes of installing Anas Sarwar as Scotland’s next First Minister. The result of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election on Thursday underlined the scale of the impact that the rise of Reform could have on the future shape of Scottish politics. With 26 per cent of the vote, Reform came a highly creditable third, trailing the victorious Labour candidate by just five points.

3 weeks ago | telegraph.co.uk | John Curtice

1 month ago | aol.co.uk | John Curtice

This week, the Telegraph will be publishing a series of essays from experts on the demographic crisis facing much of the world, with falling birth rates and ageing populations seen across many regions. A list of published articles can be found below this oneThere is a long tradition of forecasting Britain’s political future through the crystal ball of demographic change. In the 1960s the then doyenne of British psephology, the late Sir David Butler, argued that demographic change favoured Labour.