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AI's Evolution: Not Inevitable, But Shaped by Critical Decisions

2 months ago | icis.com | John Richardson

In the first of a new series of blogs, Adventures in AI, I discuss how there was nothing inevitable about the technological breakthroughs of the last eight years (bear with me. I am starting with the broader context before I focus on what this means for the chemicals industry). AI isn't just another step along the road of computer science and the internet but is instead truly revolutionary. Like all revolutions, it so easily might not have happened.
The big changes in China's LLDPE market and what could happen next

2 months ago | icis.com | John Richardson

By John RichardsonTHE ABOVE SLIDE, as with my slide earlier this week on HDPE, shows the extent to which China's LLDPE market swung in favour of the US in 2021-2024. This was during the three years after the end of the Chemicals Supercycle compared with the three years immediately before the end of the Supercycle, which was from 2019 until 2021.
US-to-China HDPE: The "known, unknowns" and the "known, knowns"

2 months ago | icis.com | John Richardson

By John RichardsonYOU SHOULD continue to prepare for anything between an improved trading relationship between the US and China, a full-blown trade war or anything in between these two extremes. You can argue that this has ever been such or that the new White House administration has led to much greater uncertainty. Whatever. This is a side issue.
Global polymers in 2025: How to deal with the worsening crisis

Jan 20, 2025 | icis.com | John Richardson

By John RichardsonI BELIEVE THE JURY is back with its verdict. China's economy is going through a long-term, structural downturn during a period when we are facing much-increased uncertainty over the extent to which it will be able to use exports as compensation for weaker-than-expected domestic growth. So, let me for the purposes of this blog not debate the issues any further.
Don't hide beneath the bed sheets when you see today's first slide

Jan 20, 2025 | icis.com | John Richardson

By John RichardsonI BELIEVE THE JURY is back with its verdict. China's economy is going through a long-term, structural downturn during a period when we are facing much-increased uncertainty over the extent to which it will be able to use exports as compensation for weaker-than-expected domestic growth. So, let me for the purposes of this blog not debate the issues any further.
Sunderland star breaks down in tears after double penalty nightmare proves costly

Jan 17, 2025 | msn.com | John Richardson

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China's PP capacity exceeding local demand forecast to jump 68% in 2025

Jan 12, 2025 | icis.com | John Richardson

By John RichardsonA PROMISED, here is the first of a series of posts following my 6 January post where I looked at the quite astonishing China-driven global oversupply in ethylene and propylene. I detailed how China's propylene capacity exceeding local demand was forecast by ICIS to reach 7.4m tonnes this year, a 179% over 2024. China's share of total global propylene capacity exceeding demand is expected to jump to 35% in 2025 over last year's 26%.
China's C2 and C3 capacity in 2025 forecast to be 121% and 179% more than local demand

Jan 6, 2025 | icis.com | John Richardson

By John RichardsonONE OF THE arguments still doing the rounds out there is that this year will mark the turning point as global petrochemicals operating rates, margins and spreads recover. Perhaps on a regional basis, yes, if we move to a more fragmented global trading world. A big threat or opportunity in 2025, depending on your position, is China facing a substantially higher number of trade disputes, as I highlighted in a 19 December 2024 post.
Two connected words of the year for 2025: "Protectionism" and "China"

Dec 18, 2024 | icis.com | John Richardson

LOTS OF FOCUS has been on the Trump effect on the US trading relationship with China. But we need to think more broadly than this. I see a significant risk that next year we will see trade tensions also increasing between other countries and China for the reasons described below.
The "sound and fury" of new China stimulus and PE and PP spreads

Dec 16, 2024 | icis.com | John Richardson

CHEMICALS MARKETS are abuzz with last week's insertion of the words "moderately loose" into Beijing's description of its monetary policy for the first time since the 2009 credit explosion. Moderately loose replaces "prudent". Confidence that Chinese growth will rebound next year has been further boosted by China's subsequent pledges to allow a bigger budget deficit, borrow more and cut interest rates.