Jon Sindreu

RT @PrestonMui: Here is the link https://t.co/84l0WTswMb Thread to come today

RT @MaxJerneck: Lol https://t.co/vFqOzA9Oti

RT @TheStalwart: Wow. @kielporter recently bought a car, and immediately the dealer called him up and asked him if he could buy it back fro…

Hey, look, at least there's progress. Now the Chinese surplus is finally admitted to be a result of industrial development policies and not "class wars" that lead to excess savings. Only been arguing this since 2020. https://t.co/8pkpDNHYBH https://t.co/9upUEhjK1w

Jon Sindreu @jonsindreu

@JoMicheII @michaelxpettis @imbresigau @Sabya_K @JWMason1 @Kumar_EconIneq @MonaAli_NY_US @DanielaGabor @izakaminska @M_C_Klein @Brad_Setser @colbyLsmith @NathanTankus @adam_tooze Regardless of this mini-argument: Whatever inequality resulted from this didn't CAUSE the savings or the imbalances, the industrial strategy did. And this industrial strategy led the country to become a mega-exporter. The direction of the export-capex link isn't the main point.

The US borrows from ROW at a high rate in the sense of attracting portfolio investors to the dollar. But the exporters that sell to Americans aren't "lending" to them at a rate of interest, they are merely selling and getting paid and won't want to stop selling and getting paid.

Brad Setser @Brad_Setser

@IrvingSwisher obviously helps that the US borrows from the RoW in its own currency, but increasingly it borrows at a relatively high rate for an advanced economy and underlying interest rate growth dynamics aren't so nice any more ... seems like it should be a source of modest concern

Everything Skanda says here is on point.

Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher

@Brad_Setser It is not at all obvious this matters meaningfully for g10 economies, which are not hard currency constrained (a f’n of wealth) and have elastic, deep local currency capital markets. For countries that dont meet those conditions, external balance metrics have more relevance.

RT @IrvingSwisher: @Brad_Setser Now if you pursue policies that diminish relative growth prospects, raise inflation risks for the central b…

RT @IrvingSwisher: @Brad_Setser It is not at all obvious this matters meaningfully for g10 economies, which are not hard currency constrain…

RT @NickTimiraos: Despite a decent auction, the 30-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps to 4.849% on Thursday. Yields are up every day this wee…

Worth noting that the 10-year Treasury yield is still at 4.3%. Not that I'm among those who think this level is in itself too alarming, but it is pretty telling. Technical factors aside, I still think that this is a market that desperately wants to revert to the mean. USD aside.

Jon Sindreu @jonsindreu

"The Trump administration has insisted that it wouldn’t be deterred from tariffs by the stock market. But a simultaneous decline in equities, bonds and the currency may have done the trick. Still, it doesn’t mean all the damage will be quickly undone." https://t.co/SV8DlmamBF

"The Trump administration has insisted that it wouldn’t be deterred from tariffs by the stock market. But a simultaneous decline in equities, bonds and the currency may have done the trick. Still, it doesn’t mean all the damage will be quickly undone." https://t.co/SV8DlmamBF

RT @JavierBlas: Exhibit A of the foolishness of the "Art of the deal." Asian nations talking up their appetite for Alaska LNG, a project t…

RT @kingofthecoastt: I find this equally, if not more, misleading? The way you pay for imports is with trade credit denominated in a foreig…

RT @AnnaEconomist: We calculated that post Trump “put” today, the tariff mix is actually worse —China exports more consumer goods to US tha…

RT @adricapi: Me'n vaig trist al llit perque els càntics no estaven ben coordinats i no han sigut variats, només se sentia soroll al camp.