Kelvin Wong

1 month ago | marketpulse.com | Kelvin Wong |Kenny Fisher

An aggressive fiscal spending proposal by Germany has attracted bullish animal spirits into EUR/USD. A significant rally in the longer-end German Bund yields is likely to alter ECB monetary policy guidance towards a “less dovish stance.”The three-month rally in the EUR/USD has reached overbought condition, at risk of a minor corrective pull-back below 1.0885/0940.

1 month ago | marketpulse.com | Kelvin Wong |Kenny Fisher

Nikkei 225 broke below its 200-day moving average and a four-month range configuration. US President Trump’s trade war 2.0 against major trading partners triggered a negative feedback loop in Japanese equities due to potential disruption in semiconductor supply chains. Positive fundamentals in the Japanese economy are likely to support the major uptrend phase of the Nikkei 225.

1 month ago | marketpulse.com | Kelvin Wong |Kenny Fisher

Revigorated US trade tariffs threat on Canada spark refresh weakness in commodities proxy currencies such as AUD. AUD/JPY may face further headwinds supported by a further narrowing of the 2-year yield spread premium between Australian and Japanese government bonds. A further risk-off in the major US stock indices may also trigger further weakness in the AUD/JPY. Watch the 93.65 potential major downside trigger level of the AUD/JPY.

2 months ago | marketpulse.com | Kelvin Wong |Kenny Fisher

The recent steep rise in the US 5-year breakeven inflation rate to 2.61%, a two-year high coupled with the unexpected contraction seen in the S&P Global flash US Services PMI for February has increased the odds of a stagflation environment. An increasingly less dovish monetary policy stance is likely to be adopted by the US Federal Reserve, in turn, tighten liquidity conditions that may trigger a medium-term negative feedback loop into the US stock market.

2 months ago | marketpulse.com | Kelvin Wong |Kenny Fisher

The recent Euro strength in the past week has fizzled out. The ongoing trend of the 2-year yield premium shrinkage between the 2-year German Bunds over Japanese Government Bonds reinforced further potential downside in EUR/JPY. Watch the 155.45 downside trigger level of the EUR/JPY. After a multi-month downtrend in the Euro Currency Index from the September 2024 high of 112.14 to the January 2025 low of 101.92, the Euro has started consolidating due to speculative net short positioning.