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Dec 30, 2024 | 
kevinbonham.blogspot.com | Kevin Bonham
Bring Back Universal Analytics Again!As in my 2023 review, I again open this annual site review by expressing my disgust at Google stuffing with the continuity of my previous site stats by replacing Universal Analytics with GA4, which is not only apparently worse and different but also very hard for me to understand. Anyway, again, on with the show as best I can ... The dotted top line of the graph below shows activity in 2024 in the form of user numbers per week.
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Dec 25, 2024 | 
kevinbonham.blogspot.com | Kevin Bonham
Last year's introduction will do just as well for this one. It's an almost annual tradition on this site to release something every Christmas Day. Click the Xmas tag for previous random examples. Why do I do this?
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Dec 20, 2024 | 
kevinbonham.blogspot.com | Kevin Bonham
2PP Aggregate Average For 2024: 50.9 To Labor (-3.9)Labor lost aggregate lead late in the yearIt's the time of the year when most busy pollsters take a few weeks off and I bring out an annual feature, a review of the year in federal polling. Click here for last year's edition and for articles back to 2014 click on the "annual poll review" tab at the bottom of this one. As usual if any late polls come out I will edit this article to update the relevant numbers.
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Dec 7, 2024 | 
kevinbonham.blogspot.com | Kevin Bonham
I thought an article was in order to unpack some of what is going on with the recent Redbridge/Accent MRP model and the woeful reporting of it by pretty much every outlet that has so far mentioned it.
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Nov 19, 2024 | 
kevinbonham.blogspot.com | Kevin Bonham
Queensland: LNP 52 ALP 36 KAP 3 GREEN 1 IND 12PP Estimate 53.76% to LNP (+6.89% from 2020)The 2024 Queensland election is over. At one stage it looked like it could be a bloodbath, and it was far from close despite some close-looking returns from the day booths, but it still ended up being only a routinely medium-heavy defeat for a decade old federally dragged government.
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Nov 17, 2024 | 
kevinbonham.blogspot.com | Kevin Bonham
EMRS Lib 35 (-1) ALP 31 (+4) Greens 14 (=) JLN 6 (-2) IND 11 (-1) others 3 (=)IND likely overstated, others likely understatedLiberals would be the largest party but Labor would make seat gains Possible seat estimate in election "held now" off this poll LIB 14 ALP 12 Green 5 IND 4The final EMRS Tasmanian voting intention poll of the year is out and it provides some evidence that the Labor Opposition might be taking baby steps on the road back to government at last.
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Nov 13, 2024 | 
kevinbonham.blogspot.com | Kevin Bonham
2PP Aggregate (Last Election Preferences) 50.1-49.9 to Coalition (+0.4, first Coalition lead of term)With One Nation adjustment 50.6-49.4 to CoalitionElection "held now" could leave Labor with about 70 seats--It finally happened! After endless months of Labor's 2PP lead being painfully whittled towards zero, last weekend's Newspoll finally put the Coalition into the lead on my last-election 2PP aggregate.
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Nov 12, 2024 | 
kevinbonham.blogspot.com | Kevin Bonham
I have four (!) articles I'm aiming to write for this site in the next week or so but the first cab off the rank should be the one where my local knowledge is most relevant, that being today's news that Rebecca White and Anne Urquhart will be running for Labor in the federal House of Reps seats in Lyons and Braddon respectively, resigning their State and Senate seats to do so.
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Nov 9, 2024 | 
kevinbonham.blogspot.com | Kevin Bonham
It's 1992. The unpopular Cain/Kirner Victorian Labor government has been sent packing. In comes Jeff Kennett and some voters are soon alarmed by his New Right agenda. Cue massive protests. The Keating federal Labor government has been struggling in the polls but it springs to life soon after Kennett's win (though that was far from the only cause). In the 1993 election Labor gets a 4.34% swing in Victoria and gains four seats.
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Oct 27, 2024 | 
kevinbonham.blogspot.com | Kevin Bonham
Following Labor's heavy defeat in the Queensland election (and no it wasn't close) it's time to start another round of the sidebar Next Leader To Go Not-A-Poll, which includes the six Premiers, the two Chief Ministers, the PM and the federal Opposition Leader. Inheriting the job after Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned, Miles served for less than a year, the first Premier to not make it to a year in office since Rob Kerin (SA) in 2002.
