Lawrence Freedman

2 days ago | thecritic.co.uk | Lawrence Freedman

Tony Brenton argues that it did and Lawrence Freedman argues that it did not On 2 June, the Committee for Academic Freedom held a debate in King’s College London on the question: “Ukraine — was Russia’s invasion provoked by Western foreign policy”. This was almost the first discussion of its sort to have taken place in a UK university — an extraordinary fact, considering the importance of the issue.

1 week ago | samf.substack.com | Lawrence Freedman

The first round of high-level diplomacy geared to persuading Iran that the game is up and that it should accept the strictest limits on its nuclear programme took place on 20 June in Geneva between European foreign ministers and their Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi. The talks ended with European claims that the discussions had been constructive, Iranian insistence that nothing could be done until Israel abandons its aggression, and President Trump suggesting it was all a waste of time.

1 week ago | foreignaffairs.com | Lawrence Freedman

Nearly five months since U.S. President Donald Trump entered the White House promising to quickly end the war in Ukraine, it is being fought as intensively as before. Russia has not rejected the idea of negotiations, but despite Trump ruling out NATO membership or U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to offer any serious concession to put a deal within reach. At first glance, it is unclear why this is so.

1 week ago | newstatesman.com | Lawrence Freedman

The war between Israel and Iran is limited only because of the distance between the two countries. They share no border and so, unlike most wars, this one is not about territory and does not involve armies. Instead it is being fought with long-range aircraft, drones and missiles. For this reason, so long as it remains confined to these two countries, it cannot go on indefinitely. Their capabilities will become depleted, Iran’s before Israel’s, but exactly when is hard to say.

2 weeks ago | samf.substack.com | Lawrence Freedman

This is a first response to a developing story and will be updated. For the past few days we have been going through one of those ‘is it real or is it bluff’ moments with talk of an imminent Israeli military strike against Iran, against the backdrop of planned talks on Sunday in Oman between US and Iran. The argument that this was bluff was that it might be means of extracting more concessions from Iran.