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1 week ago | 
advisorperspectives.com | Liz Ann Sonders |Kevin Gordon
In economic analysis, the distinction between "soft" and "hard" data is crucial for interpreting the health and trajectory of the economy. Soft data refers to sentiment-based measures such as surveys, expectations, and confidence indicators, while hard data encompasses quantifiable economic outputs like employment numbers, retail sales, and industrial production. Recent divergences between weaker soft economic data and more resilient hard data have muddied the outlook.
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2 weeks ago | 
advisorperspectives.com | Liz Ann Sonders |Kathy Jones |Jeffrey Kleintop |Kevin Gordon
Stocks have surged since the White House backed away from sweeping tariffs imposed in early April, although U.S. tariff policy remains uncertain and is a potential driver of continued volatility. Higher tariffs could slow economic growth while raising inflation—which is still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate—complicating the Fed's move toward cutting interest rates.
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3 weeks ago | 
advisorperspectives.com | Liz Ann Sonders |Kevin Gordon
Last week marked one month since the S&P 500's recent April 8th low. To say the recovery has been fast and furious might be an understatement, evidenced by the index's 13.7% gain from April 8th to May 8th. Going back to 2000, the only years in which we've seen a stronger one-month increase are 2020, 2009, 2008, 2002, and 2001.
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1 month ago | 
advisorperspectives.com | Liz Ann Sonders |Kevin Gordon
In mid-March, we penned a report on rising recession risk—which as a reminder, was prior to the "Liberation Day" announcement, and subsequent delays on the implementation of tariffs. Reading it again is a good primer for this report. It has become no easier to gauge the trajectory of the economy since then; especially since a recession would be a "policy choice" of sorts. Barring more of a permanent backpedal, recession odds appear to us to be better than even.
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1 month ago | 
schwab.com | Liz Ann Sonders |Kevin Gordon
In mid-March, we penned a report on rising recession risk—which as a reminder, was prior to the "Liberation Day" announcement, and subsequent delays on the implementation of tariffs. Reading it again is a good primer for this report. It has become no easier to gauge the trajectory of the economy since then; especially since a recession would be a "policy choice" of sorts. Barring more of a permanent backpedal, recession odds appear to us to be better than even.
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1 month ago | 
advisorperspectives.com | Liz Ann Sonders |Kevin Gordon
The trade war is ongoing, notwithstanding last week's 90-day pause on some tariffs. The level, scope, and targeted countries seems to be a daily moving target, but given what we know now, it's estimated that the U.S. weighted average tariff rate is nearly 25%, the highest in more than a century, as shown below. Amid all the tariff-related market volatility, there was a lot of chatter last week about a "Trump put" (a threshold of market weakness sufficient for the administration to adjust policy).
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1 month ago | 
schwab.com | Liz Ann Sonders |Kevin Gordon
The trade war is ongoing, notwithstanding last week's 90-day pause on some tariffs. The level, scope, and targeted countries seems to be a daily moving target, but given what we know now, it's estimated that the U.S. weighted average tariff rate is nearly 25%, the highest in more than a century, as shown below. Source: Charles Schwab, Fitch Ratings, Census Bureau, U.S. International Trade Commission, Bloomberg Economics, as 4/11/2025.
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1 month ago | 
schwab.com | Liz Ann Sonders |Kathy A. Jones
Modal can be closed by pressing Escape key. KATHY JONES: I'm Kathy Jones. LIZ ANN SONDERS: And I'm Liz Ann Sonders. KATHY: And this is On Investing, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Each week, we analyze what's happening in the markets and discuss how it might affect your investments. Well, hi, Liz Ann.
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2 months ago | 
schwab.com | Liz Ann Sonders |Kathy A. Jones
Modal can be closed by pressing Escape key. LIZ ANN SONDERS: I'm Liz Ann Sonders. KATHY JONES: And I'm Kathy Jones. LIZ ANN: And this is On Investing, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Every week, we analyze what's happening in the markets and discuss how it might affect your investments. Well, hi, Kathy. So we just finished getting all the new news on tariffs. We were supposed to tape this part of the episode earlier today.
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2 months ago | 
advisorperspectives.com | Liz Ann Sonders |Kevin Gordon
Amid a market correction and heightened policy, inflation and growth concerns, valuations are back in the spotlight. Equity market valuations can be analyzed in multiple contexts and via myriad metrics. Most metrics are fundamental in nature, often relating price to another fundamental component like earnings (P/E ratios), sales, or book value. But then there's the willingness factor: the ebb and flow over time of what investors are willing to pay for those fundamental components.
