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Nov 27, 2024 | 
urban.org | Lucy Dadayan
State revenue growth in fiscal year 2024 remained weak, mirroring the trend seen in fiscal year 2023. This sustained weak growth followed a period of robust growth during the preceding two years, driven by temporary factors including federal fiscal aid during the COVID-19 pandemic and strong stock market performance. States previously forecasted that this growth would continue, but revenues in fiscal years 2023 and 2024 have fallen below those earlier projections.
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Sep 17, 2024 | 
taxpolicycenter.org | Lucy Dadayan |Robert McClelland |Livia Mucciolo |Safia Sayed
Total state government tax revenue collections rose 3.0 percent in nominal terms and 0.6 percent in real terms in the first quarter of 2024 relative to a year earlier Key tax revenue sources showed mixed performance. In the first quarter of 2024, personal income tax revenues declined by 1.4 percent in real terms compared to the previous year, while corporate income tax revenues rose by 2.4 percent.
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Jul 3, 2024 | 
taxpolicycenter.org | Lucy Dadayan
State revenue forecasting has always been a complex task. Given these challenges, state forecasters tend to underestimate rather than overestimate revenues to avoid potentially severe consequences of overestimation on state budgets and fiscal planning. But the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath introduced unprecedented challenges for state fiscal planners.
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Jun 28, 2024 | 
taxpolicycenter.org | Lucy Dadayan |Robert McClelland |Livia Mucciolo |Safia Sayed
State revenue forecasters face multifaceted challenges in projecting revenues, especially amid rapid and significant economic, demographic, and technological changes. This report provides an in-depth examination of the challenges and complexities involved in state revenue forecasting across different economic phases. It spans from the post–Great Recession expansion through the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent recovery.
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May 28, 2024 | 
taxpolicycenter.org | Lucy Dadayan |Robert McClelland |Livia Mucciolo |Safia Sayed
Total state government tax revenue collections rose by 4.5 percent in nominal terms and 1.8 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier. Personal income tax revenues increased by 5.9 percent and corporate income tax revenues increased by 6.7 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared relative to a year earlier.
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Feb 27, 2024 | 
taxpolicycenter.org | Lucy Dadayan
High inflation appears to be giving way to an economic “soft landing,” alleviating concerns state forecasters had heading into the current fiscal year. States now anticipate weak revenues in the remainder of fiscal year 2024 followed by modest growth in fiscal year 2025 across all major tax categories. This expected stabilization suggests a recovery from the erratic revenue swings since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Feb 14, 2024 | 
taxpolicycenter.org | Lucy Dadayan |Robert McClelland |Livia Mucciolo |Safia Sayed
Total state government tax revenue collections declined 1.2 percent in nominal terms and 4.3 percent in real terms in the third quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier. The inflation-adjusted growth rates differed significantly across key revenue sources in the third quarter of 2023.
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Nov 21, 2023 | 
taxpolicycenter.org | Lucy Dadayan |Robert McClelland |Livia Mucciolo |Safia Sayed
Total state government tax revenue collections declined 12.8 percent in nominal terms and 15.7 percent in real terms in the second quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier. The inflation-adjusted growth rates differed significantly across key revenue sources in the second quarter of 2023.
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Oct 7, 2023 | 
sltrib.com | Lucy Dadayan
Utah's preliminary budget numbers show tax collections for the state finished slightly behind projections for the just-ended fiscal year, primarily because of lower-than-expected income tax revenue. When lawmakers set the state's budget, they rely on revenue projections for the coming year. In recent years, revenue for the state has been higher than anticipated, giving legislators more money to spend. That's not the case this year.
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Aug 30, 2023 | 
taxpolicycenter.org | Lucy Dadayan |Robert McClelland |Livia Mucciolo |Safia Sayed
Total state government tax revenue collections declined 6.8 percent in nominal terms and 11.5 percent in real terms in the first quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier. Growth rates varied considerably among major revenue sources. Personal income tax revenues declined 22.5 percent, corporate income tax revenues declined 29.2 percent, and sales tax revenues increased 0.7 percent in real terms in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the same quarter in 2022.
