Mark Helfman

6 days ago | hackernoon.com | Mark Helfman

Various reports say publicly-traded companies hold over 800,000 Bitcoins. 75% of those Bitcoins belong to Strategy฿. The company bought most of its stash in the past eight months, almost entirely with other people’s money. Those purchases have tapered off since January. Smaller buys with each round. Why is the pace slowing down? What does that say about the insatiable institutional appetite the gurus keep talking about? How confident are you that the trend will reverse? Can they keep it up?

Mar 18, 2025 | medium.datadriveninvestor.com | Mark Helfman

empowerment through data, knowledge, and expertise. subscribe to DDIntel at…Follow publicationCrypto people love data models, price theories, projections, and predictions. Do you? So do I!All of these models seem reasonable. They use data and math. They fit nicely with history and human behavior. And they all disagree with each other. As part of a series of articles looking at some of the most popular data models, this post looks at Stock to Flow (S2F) and Power Law.

Jan 20, 2025 | hackernoon.com | Mark Helfman

Have you heard about Elliott Waves? It's a way to understand the movements of prices and anticipate shifts in trends. A “Wave 5” for the ages? According to the Elliott Wave Theory, markets move in five waves. The first wave is small but noticeable, followed by a drop in the second wave. The third wave is the longest and strongest, followed by a pull-back fourth wave and ending with a fifth wave that pushes the price higher but does not give a return as large as wave three.

Jan 8, 2025 | medium.datadriveninvestor.com | Mark Helfman

Crypto people love data models, price theories, projections, and predictions. Do you? So do I!All of these models seem reasonable. They use data and math. They fit nicely with history and human behavior. And they all disagree with each other. As part of a series of articles looking at some of the most popular data models, this post looks at liquidity cycles. In previous articles, I talked about the halving cycle, four-year cycle, logarithmic growth curves, and Pi Cycle.

Dec 6, 2024 | hackernoon.com | Mark Helfman

Analysts have come up with all sorts of data models and metrics to predict Bitcoin’s major cycles and peaks. Most of them predict lofty prices and bull markets that will last at least another year or more. One metric suggests they might be wrong. Let’s look at the Realized Cap HODL Waves, which splits holders into bands based on how long they’ve held their Bitcoins without moving them, then weighs each cohort by the price of those Bitcoins.