Matthew Boesler

Futures putting a Fed rate cut in May at 50-50 now as stocks plunge https://t.co/Xp25KK48qW

Several Wall Street banks are warning of a recession—and inflation returning to pandemic levels—following Trump's tariff announcement, with some saying it's now their base case. Many think the Fed will be slow to respond, potentially making matters worse https://t.co/CkdQrz04fw

Futures are now pricing better-than-even odds of rate cuts at each of the Fed's final five policy meetings this year after no change at the next meeting in May (although the odds of a May rate cut are now up to 30% too)

Initial reaction from U.S. economists is tariffs announced today would take core inflation back into the 4-5% range this year, from current levels below 3% https://t.co/WhQauPtCex

RT @ElleBeyoud: The former top lawyer at events trading platform Kalshi is leading the DOGE team recently arrived at the SEC. More from @…

"U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is planning an executive order that would ease rules governing exports of military equipment, and could announce it as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, four sources familiar with the discussions said" https://t.co/QY2agi0oKZ

RT @pblodlr: The rain on the Texas-Mexico border this week has been like nothing we've seen in modern times, with devastation on both sides…

University of Michigan started asking consumer survey respondents this question about job security in 1997. Latest reading suggests fears have almost never been worse since then. Another obvious sign of the shift in the balance of power toward employers (https://t.co/iHt8QpvbAo) https://t.co/uqBzMlI7Ha

"Despite three years of war in Europe, the continent still lacks basics like sufficient production capacity for gunpowder. That means gearing up mainly involves buying from the U.S." https://t.co/xodl6C37ca

Wall Street seems to be coalescing around half a million as the estimate for job losses this year as a result of DOGE efforts, considering knock-on effects in the private sector. That would amount to a reversal of a quarter of all U.S. job growth in 2024 https://t.co/o7zCWsjiRu

Dispatch from the Midwest: "There were many contacts that reported having little trouble filling positions. One contact in retail said they had 'resumes stacked to the ceiling'" https://t.co/fn6n5jYPCW

Congressional Republicans launching a task force aimed, among other things, at the Fed's employment mandate https://t.co/hCzzQg9F0q

"In 2021, only 4% of the Harvard Business School class was without a job offer three months after graduation. That figure has crept up each year since and now stands at 15%, according to the school’s employment data" https://t.co/NBQTfBWdYJ

Useful context on federal government layoffs from @louishyman: "Actually a very normal state of affairs for anybody in the private sector" (https://t.co/IlmBQfPVW0) https://t.co/HGajqFFaUA

Minutes of the Fed's January meeting confirm this is on the chopping block: "Participants assessed that it was important to consider potential revisions ... Participants highlighted as areas of consideration ... the approach of mitigating shortfalls from maximum employment"

Matthew B @boes_

Key question in Fed's strategy review is whether it sticks with 2020 shift effectively ending the practice of preemptive tightening and enshrining "broad-based and inclusive" employment as its goal. Even before Nov. 5, economists were already attacking it https://t.co/ro0szrnG9w

Key question in Fed's strategy review is whether it sticks with 2020 shift effectively ending the practice of preemptive tightening and enshrining "broad-based and inclusive" employment as its goal. Even before Nov. 5, economists were already attacking it https://t.co/ro0szrnG9w

“These people who come to invest, how are they going to make their money? They need someone who doubles it, redoubles it. That’s what each of us migrants do” https://t.co/oHS2FvckXP