Matthew Graham

Chief Operating Officer at Mortgage News Daily

https://t.co/TUDBEHJsbZ, https://t.co/yZoGY246Mm

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Articles

Mortgage Rates Barely Lower to End The Week

6 days ago | mortgagenewsdaily.com | Matthew Graham

Whether it's today vs yesterday, or today vs the end of last week, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is just a hair lower. Today's improvement was arguably a byproduct of trade related headlines this morning. Specifically, some comments suggested this weekend's negotiations between the US and China in Switzerland would merely be a starting point.
Lots of Fed Speakers, But The Focus is on China

6 days ago | mortgagenewsdaily.com | Matthew Graham

A glance at today's economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events. But what can the Fed say that we didn't already hear from Powell on Wednesday, or 47 other times in other speeches over the past month? Maybe something, but probably nothing earth shattering. Instead, the market is on the edge of its seat as it waits for breaking news from US/China trade talks this weekend. Anticipation is greatly amplified by yesterday's UK/US deal.
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration

1 week ago | mortgagenewsdaily.com | Matthew Graham

Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration Bonds ended up selling off somewhat sharply today with the bulk of the blame apparently reserved for the UK/US trade deal. In fact, the pace of the selling wasn't something we would have predicted when the details emerged this morning. This raises questions about what other motivations could be in play. Certainly, the "precedent thesis" is relevant (i.e. what does today's deal imply about how other trade deals may look?).
Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal

1 week ago | mortgagenewsdaily.com | Matthew Graham

Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. Most lenders actually began the day fairly close to yesterday's latest levels, but were ultimately forced to raise rates in response to weakness in the bond market. The rationale for this market reaction can be debated. Some market watchers conclude that a trade deal is simply "good for stocks and bad for bonds" because it's economically bullish.
Slow Start, Two-Way Trading After Data

1 week ago | mortgagenewsdaily.com | Matthew Graham

Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data. This consisted of Jobless Claims coming in slightly lower than forecast, and Labor Costs rising to 5.7% for Q1 vs 2.0% in Q4. Of the two, the latter likely accounted for the initial selling impulse, but it was short-lived.
Just as Underwhelming as Expected

1 week ago | mortgagenewsdaily.com | Matthew Graham

Just as Underwhelming as Expected No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even before Fed speakers went into the customary blackout period 12 days ago, it was already abundantly clear that they were all on the same page--a page of uncertainty in an uncertain chapter of an uncertain book.
Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed

1 week ago | mortgagenewsdaily.com | Matthew Graham

Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular reason. End of year Fed Funds Rate expectations have been almost perfectly flat so far this week after falling a quarter point in the last week of April, and then jumping more than a quarter point at the end of last week. That's a script for Powell's press conference today: a tale of two mandates.
10yr Auction to The Rescue

1 week ago | mortgagenewsdaily.com | Matthew Graham

10yr Auction to The Rescue Today's 10yr Treasury auction was the only relevant calendar event in terms of potential market movement and it lived up to its billing. Unlike the set-up to many auctions, there was no meaningful weakness in bonds ahead of the 1pm cut-off. The results themselves were decidedly strong and the immediacy of the market reaction reflected that.
2-Way Trading, Slightly Weaker Start

1 week ago | mortgagenewsdaily.com | Matthew Graham

Bonds have been on both sides of unchanged so far today. The overnight session began with slightly higher yields followed by a gradual rally. By 9am ET, bonds were modestly stronger on the day. Some traders are focusing on German political developments with early indications that expected Chancellor Merz didn't have the votes to win today's election. After a second round of voting (a big deal in German politics), Merz is in, and German bunds are coming off their weakest levels.
Selling Spree Continues, But Gently

1 week ago | mortgagenewsdaily.com | Matthew Graham

Selling Spree Continues, But Gently Bonds were focused on this morning's ISM Services Index with some traders waiting to see more evidence of economic fallout from tariff-related uncertainty. Instead, the index moved slightly higher and was rather uneventful by the time all sub-components were considered. Not enough fuel there for bond bulls, so the bears kept the 3 day selling spree going, ultimately getting 10yr yields back over the 4.34 technical level that got so much play time in March.