Menzie Chinn

1 day ago | econbrowser.com | Menzie Chinn

Trump has indicated his desire for a weaker dollar. It looks like he’s getting it. Figure 1: Fed broad dollar index, 2006M01=100 (black, left scale), Treasury 10 year, % (blue, right scale). June 27 observation for nominal dollar is estimated using observation on DXY. Source: Federal Reserve and Treasury. The dollar has weakened, at certain points when the ten year yield has risen (suggesting an erosion of its safe haven status), and most recently has fallen with falling Treasury yields.

1 day ago | econbrowser.com | Menzie Chinn

From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic indicators, as well as the Q1 3rd release. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), May SPF median (tan line), GDPNow (sky blue square), Goldman Sachs (blue square), NY Fed (green triangle), St. Louis News nowcast (inverted red triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, and author’s calculations.

1 day ago | econbrowser.com | Menzie Chinn

Personal income, consumption both down in May, with today’s release. Industrial production, civilian employment in NFP concept down from previous releases. Monthly GDP from SPGMI and manufacturing and trade industry sales down in April…it’s reasonable to ask whether this is all signaling something. First up, indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). The BCDC places primary emphasis on the employment and income series.

2 days ago | econbrowser.com | Menzie Chinn

So much for a manufacturing renaissance, post-“Liberation Day”. Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue), value added in 2017$ (red), employment (tan), hours (light green) all in logs, 2024M04=0; and capacity utilization (NAICS), % (black, right scale). Aggregate hours of production workers calculated by multiplying average weekly hours by employees. Source: Federal Reserve, BEA, BLS, and author’s calculations.

2 days ago | econbrowser.com | Menzie Chinn

Those are some of the topic areas of this year’s NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics, which took place in Split, Croatia. Discussants:Adrien d’Avernas, Stockholm School of EconomicsHélène Rey, London Business School and NBERDiscussants:Saleem Bahaj, University College LondonCharles Engel, University of Wisconsin – Madison and NBERThomas Sampson, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)Laura Alfaro, Harvard University and NBERJurica Zrnc, Croatian National BankMenzie D.