Menzie Chinn

1 week ago | econbrowser.com | Menzie Chinn

That’s from GS yesterday. Question: Should one stock up on ibuprofen, because I anticipate a lot of headaches coming. Asking for a friend. Of the $17.8 bn increase in imports, $20.9 bn were accounted for by imports of pharmaceutical preparations, according to the March release.

1 week ago | econbrowser.com | Menzie Chinn

Monthly GDP is added to key indicators followed by NBER BCDC: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark through December (thin blue), civilian employment as reported (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue...

1 week ago | econbrowser.com | Menzie Chinn

Probit regression recession on 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month interest rate:Figure 1: Estimated recession probability using 1986 onward sample (blue), using pre-pandemic sample (tan), assuming no recession as of May 2025. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: NBER, author’s calculations.

1 week ago | econbrowser.com | Menzie Chinn

For my sins, I get emails from AAPS: central banks globally are buying gold, but since 2021, foreign official purchases of the U.S. Treasury bill, once considered the safest form of investment, have plummeted. Confidence in the U.S. as the world’s economic powerhouse is crumbling. …The article continues:He suggests stocking up on emergency equipment and supplies. He warns that the destructive effects of ObamaCare are continuing, and that good medical care will be increasingly hard to find.

1 week ago | econbrowser.com | Menzie Chinn

GDP is a measure of output from the spending side. A standard alternative measure is Gross Domestic Output (GDO), the average of GDP and GDI. Figure 1: GDP (blue), Goldman Sachs tracking estimate of 53 (light blue square), estimate of GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), and final sales (red), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Estimate of GDO calculated by using assuming 12.8% increase in net operating surplus, y/y. GDP+ calculated by iterating growth rates on 2021Q4 level of GDP.