Michael Coelli

May 22, 2023 | austaxpolicy.com | Michael Coelli |Nicholas Biddle |Chris Murphy

In last year’s Budget Forum, I forecast that excessive fiscal stimulus during COVID would lead to an outbreak of inflation and called for tighter fiscal policy to limit that outbreak. This year, I check on the accuracy of my inflation forecast and how fiscal policy has developed, and propose a new plan for personal income tax rates.

May 18, 2023 | austaxpolicy.com | Nicholas Biddle |Michael Coelli

On Budget night, Treasurer Jim Chalmers claimed that the Government’s measures would reduce inflation. Budget Paper No. 1 also makes the following claim about the Consumer Price Index (CPI):Where do these claims come from? Are they plausible? Will these effects persist beyond 2023-24? Will the measures have other implications that might be less desirable? Will these measures provide support to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in curbing inflation without tipping us into recession?