Michael Weber

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Articles

Kindleberger Cycles: Method in the Madness of Crowds?

May 31, 2024 | edwardconard.com | Philip Schnorpfeil |Michael Weber |Andreas Hackethal |Joe Wadford

Evidence from German investors finds that educating investors about negative stock market returns during inflation causes them to reduce their return expectations and purchases of equities. We conducted a survey with 2,800 investors in cooperation with a large German bank in February 2022 when inflation in Germany was at a 30-year high.
Inflation and Trading

May 17, 2024 | nber.org | Philip Schnorpfeil |Michael Weber |Andreas Hackethal

Skip to main content We thank our partners at a bank for their collaboration and the data necessary to conduct this research. The bank data were obtained under a non-disclosure agreement. The bank did not review the results of the paper prior to public dissemination. We are also grateful for helpful comments from conference participants at the 2022 Experimental Finance Conference and the 2022 Research in Behavioral Finance Conference.
Why Survey-Based Subjective Expectations are Meaningful and Important

Mar 1, 2024 | nber.org | Francesco D’Acunto |Michael Weber

Skip to main content The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation (Grant #2149129). When citing this paper, please use the following: D’Acunto, F and M. Weber. 2024. Why Survey-Based Subjective Expectations are Meaningful and Important. Annu. Rev. Econ. 16: Submitted.
Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations

Nov 15, 2023 | bfi.uchicago.edu | Michael Weber

Inflation expectations—the rate at which people expect prices to rise in the future—are a decisive factor for charting the course of monetary policy. If workers and businesses expect inflation to rise, they will act in ways that contribute to actual inflation. For example, workers demand higher wages in anticipation of higher prices, and businesses raise prices in anticipation of higher costs, including labor.
Households' Response to the Wealth Effects of Inflation

Sep 7, 2023 | nber.org | Michael Weber |Andreas Hackethal |Philip Schnorpfeil

Skip to main content We thank our partners at a bank for their collaboration and the data necessary to conduct this research. The bank data were obtained under a non-disclosure agreement. The bank did not review the results of the paper prior to public dissemination.
Tell Me Something I Don’t Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings

Aug 1, 2023 | bfi.uchicago.edu | Michael Weber

The environment in which we live shapes our behavior and beliefs. Those who grew up during the Great Depression, for example, tend to be more wary of financial risk.1 Those who lived through hyperinflation are similarly scarred by the experience and are less likely to invest in risky assets.2 While the effects of historical episodes on behavior can be studied ex-post, it is more challenging—but of paramount importance for policymaking—to study how the peoples’ beliefs evolve in real time.
The Long-term Effects of Inflation on Inflation Expectations

Jul 24, 2023 | bfi.uchicago.edu | Michael Weber

We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations. German households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today. Our evidence points towards a transmission of inflation experiences from parents to children and through local institutions.
ChatGPT and Corporate Policies

Jul 24, 2023 | bfi.uchicago.edu | Michael Weber

This paper uses ChatGPT, a large language model, to extract managerial expectations of corporate policies from disclosures. We create a firm-level ChatGPT investment score, based on conference call texts, that measures managers’ anticipated changes in capital expenditures. We validate the ChatGPT investment score with interpretable textual content and its strong correlation with CFO survey responses.