Michelle Celarier

New York

Writer at Freelance

Writer at Large at Institutional Investor

Writer at Large @iimag. DM for Signal or write to : [email protected].

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Articles

“Deficit Hawks? Try Chicken Hawks,” Says JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest

4 days ago | institutionalinvestor.com | Michelle Celarier

Republicans may bemoan the government deficit, and lowering it was certainly one stated goal of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. But the deficit is now set to explode, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Michael Cembalest, who derided the Republicans for their new budget bill that will add trillions of dollars to the deficit in coming years.
Institutional Investor’s 2025 Hedge Fund Rising Stars

2 weeks ago | institutionalinvestor.com | Michelle Celarier

This year, Institutional Investor is honoring 10 Rising Stars in the hedge fund industry. The talented professionals in this elite group are recognized for their outstanding contributions and diverse backgrounds. We’ve chosen people from the tiniest startup funds to those working at the largest, and most iconic, firms. We focus on five of the rising stars here. Two of them, Kate Baumann of Empyrean Capital Partners and Farid Guindo of Drill Capital Management, were born in Africa.
Venture Capital’s Woes Could Get Worse

3 weeks ago | institutionalinvestor.com | Michelle Celarier

The trouble with venture capital is not going away. Since 2022, the total value of venture capital assets under management has been declining while VC funds continue to struggle with exits, more funding rounds are either flat or down from previous ones, and investor anxiety about not receiving expected distributions grows.
“Dogespierre Has Left the Building,” Says JPM’s Michael Cembalest

1 month ago | institutionalinvestor.com | Michelle Celarier

Weeks before Donald Trump was inaugurated, bringing Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency to Washington with him, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Michael Cenbalest was skeptical of how much money the effort could save. Instead of Musk’s claim of $1 trillion to $2 trillion in savings, Cembalest calculated that the total would come to about $150 million. He was close: Recently Musk suggested it would only amount to $160 million.
The Trillion-Dollar Private Credit Market Faces Its First Big Test

1 month ago | institutionalinvestor.com | Michelle Celarier

After the banking system nearly collapsed during the 2008 financial crisis, Congress in 2010 passed the Dodd-Frank legislation, forcing banks to hold more capital against risky commercial loans. It also pushed corporate lending into the hands of private equity firms like Apollo Global Management, Blackstone Group, Ares Management, and KKR. The upshot was a $1.7 trillion private credit industry that investors loved.
The Troubles That Continue to Plague Private Capital Created a Windfall for One Market

1 month ago | institutionalinvestor.com | Michelle Celarier

Private equity is facing lackluster fundraising and few options to sell portfolio companies — but that has been a tailwind for the secondary market, which investors use to sell their stakes in PE funds. In 2024, secondaries had a record year by raising what PitchBook estimates was $101.6 billion, a 29 percent increase over 2023. That burst of activity in secondaries came as overall fundraising in privates fell about 45 percent, according to the research firm’s annual review of the market.
The Funds Reeling from the Disastrous Drop in Health Care and Biopharma

1 month ago | institutionalinvestor.com | Stephen Taub |John Crabb |Michelle Celarier

It is another nightmare year for Casdin Capital. The life sciences hedge fund was down 32 percent in the first quarter alone in a generally rough period for much of the sector. As a result, 2025 could be Casdin’s third disastrous year in the past five, making it nearly impossible to predict when or if the firm will ever hit its high-water mark.
REITs Are in a Rut

1 month ago | institutionalinvestor.com | Jonathan Kandell |John Crabb |Michelle Celarier

In their more than six decades, real estate investment trusts have reached far beyond traditional deals and come up with innovative angles on such unlikely businesses as roulette tables and marijuana. In the mid-2010s, Las Vegas casinos like MGM Resorts International sold their real estate to REITs while retaining operation of the casinos themselves. That allowed them to focus on gambling as the REITs enjoyed stable rental income.
Facing Anti-Trans Policies, Manager Contemplates Move to Canada

1 month ago | institutionalinvestor.com | Michelle Celarier |Alicia McElhaney

Aristides Capital may be the first hedge fund to open an office in Canada under the new administration — and not because of Trump’s tariff policy, even though CEO Claire Brown, previously known as Chris, thinks those don’t make any sense at all. “Sometimes, the decisions we make to reduce tail risk are not purely financial,” Brown wrote in her April letter to investors.
Mark Spiegel’s Stanphyl Is Looking Prescient About the Market and Tesla

2 months ago | institutionalinvestor.com | Michelle Celarier

The tariff-induced stock market rout is confirming what hedge fund Stanphyl Capital’s Mark Spiegel has been saying for some time: the market is way overvalued, and Trump’s tariffs are only going to make it worse. Spiegel’s pessimism is finally paying off. While many hedge funds are awash in red ink, Stanphyl, which is famously short Tesla as well as the broader market, was up almost 30 percent during the first quarter, compared to a 4.3 percent loss for the S&P500.