Mike Konczal

Maryland, Washington, D.C.

Personal account. Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, National Economic Council. Former @RooseveltInst. Liberal. #Rstats. Dad. Chicago guy.

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Articles

People Really Like Quitting Manufacturing Jobs in a Hot Labor Market

2 weeks ago | mikekonczal.substack.com | Mike Konczal

There was an online back and forth about polling from the Cato Institute that found 80 percent of people agree “America would be better off if more people worked in manufacturing,” but only 25 percent agree “I would be better off if I worked in a factory.”Frank Luntz tweeted it out, Tej Parikh wrote about it at the Financial Times (“Nostalgia for manufacturing will make the US poorer”), as did Oren Cass of American Compass and Scott Winship at AEI at their sites.
When Reality Isn't Bad Enough: Trump’s Fake ‘Private-Sector Recession’ of 2024

4 weeks ago | mikekonczal.substack.com | Mike Konczal

Were we in a secret labor market recession in 2024? Was the labor market experiencing a ‘private-sector recession’ as the Trump administration took over? No. But as the reality of Trump's disastrous trade war and the growing threat of an actual recession set in, we’ll hear more of this excuse from Trump officials. It’s wrong—and worse, the Trump team's current actions represent the most harmful response possible to any underlying economic slowdown.
The Federal Reserve vs. the Tariff Shock: What If It Isn’t Transitory?

1 month ago | mikekonczal.substack.com | Mike Konczal

Summary:As Trump’s tariffs hit the real economy, a reasonable estimate is that unemployment rises by 1 percentage point—possibly 2—meaning a loss of between 1.7 and 3.4 million jobs. The Fed will aim to protect inflation expectations—and there’s already evidence those expectations are starting to shift. The COVID supply shock was a one-time shift in the price level; tariffs at this magnitude could create a one-time shift in the inflation rate. It’s not just the stock market.
Block Editor - Publication Template

1 month ago | rooseveltinstitute.org | Stephen Nuñez |Felicia Wong |Mike Konczal |Marshall Steinbaum

In this report, we seek to offer an analysis of the people, institutions, and history that brought us to this moment in economic policymaking. From the Green New Deal, to the American Rescue Plan, we look at key economic moments and what has been accomplished and what remains to be done if we are to see a sustained transition toward more progressive economic governance.
The Abundance Doctrine

1 month ago | businessandamerica.com | Mike Konczal

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The Abundance Doctrine

2 months ago | democracyjournal.org | Mike Konczal

The Empire State Building, then the world’s tallest building at 102 stories, was completed in 1931. Building that majestic structure, later called one of the Seven Wonders of the Modern World by the American Society of Civil Engineers, took just one year and 45 days. Contrast that with just about anything we try to build now. And it’s not just speed. In the 1970s, 1.7 million new homes were constructed each year.
Rethinking the Biden Era Economic Debate

Feb 14, 2025 | mikekonczal.substack.com | Mike Konczal

I believe one reason there’s been a conservativevibesshift was that the recent Democratic loss was broad enough to hit any theory of what the Democratic Party coalition should look like and what their agenda should be going forward. So there’s going to be some necessary autopsies of what went wrong; but they’ll also need to be refined through pushback.
Racing the Tariffs: How The Election Sparked a Surge in Auto and Durable Goods Spending in Q4 2024

Feb 2, 2025 | mikekonczal.substack.com | Mike Konczal

In Q4 2024 auto sales spiked 7%, with spending on durable goods picking up from between 3% and 24%. Since auto lending standards net tightened, this is likely from anticipated tariffs. This spending on durables showed up in GDP, with durables driving 37% of real GDP and being the main increase in nominal PCE, with auto inflation up 6.6%. As the United States approaches a trade war with autos particularly exposed, auto inventories remain weak and have recently fallen.
Did Remote Work Drive the Global Surge in Job Openings?

Jan 27, 2025 | mikekonczal.substack.com | Mike Konczal

The 2025 Economic Report of the President (ERP), the last one under President Biden, came out right before the end of his administration. It’s a fun document. At the National Economic Council I got to make a small contribution, giving some comments and edits to try and get my grubby politico fingerprints all over ithelp advise, monitor, coordinate, and establish consistency in the policymaking process. There’s a chapter on remote work that is particularly useful at this moment.
Did We Tame Inflation With No Economic Cost? The Sacrifice Ratio Has the Wrong Sign

Jan 22, 2025 | mikekonczal.substack.com | Mike Konczal

How costly will it be to bring down inflation? This is one of the big questions in macroeconomics, and it’s been one of the most important questions over the past few years as inflation spiked following the pandemic.