Mike Simonsen

San Francisco

President founder of Altos Research (now part of HousingWire). Real Estate Data. https://t.co/dIBQsVXaEX https://t.co/Jtga6fjnAh

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Articles

Why April home sales are ahead of last year

3 days ago | housingwire.com | Mike Simonsen

Available inventory of unsold homes grew by 17,000 this week. That’s the biggest single-week inventory gain in nearly three years. The supply of homes on the market continues to grow. Three years ago was when mortgage rates were spiking as we exited the pandemic economy. Inventory climbs when interest rates climb. This spring, mortgage rates have stayed higher for longer than expected, and the inventory of unsold homes on the market continues to expand.
How quickly does financial turmoil impact the housing market?

2 weeks ago | housingwire.com | Mike Simonsen

While the housing market seems like the least of our financial worries right now as stock markets are melting down around the globe, we track housing here at HousingWire, so it opens the question: how quickly could we see impact in the housing market and in which data would we see it first? We have two competing forces that will impact home buyer demand. Mortgage rates, of course. If rates fall, that obviously helps demand.
Mortgages may be the sunny spot in a cloudy US economy

3 weeks ago | housingwire.com | Mike Simonsen

The newest data on outstanding residential mortgages has been released via the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)’s National Mortgage Database. It tells a pretty strong story on the financial strength of the American homeowner. Even after three years of rising interest rates and a painful housing market recession, the lasting effects of the post-pandemic boom still dominate the average American’s financial condition. Forty percent of homeowners have no mortgage at all — a staggering number.
Home price signals continue to weaken for 2025

3 weeks ago | housingwire.com | Mike Simonsen

There are just slightly more home sales happening now than last year at this time but the supply side is growing faster than demand.
Mortgage rates have leveled off. What happens next?

1 month ago | wealthcreationinvesting.com | Mike Simonsen

view original postThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) won't meet again until May 6-7, but interest rate traders remain firm that the policy rate isn't changing then either. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, nearly 90% of traders believe that rates will stay in the same in May. Looking further into the future, however, 62% say the the FOMC will cut rates by 25 basis points in June.
Weekly pending home sales finally exceed 2024

1 month ago | housingwire.com | Mike Simonsen

After a very disappointing first quarter with home sales failing to climb over 2024’s already anemic levels, signs are finally emerging in March that we’ve turned the corner to have some growth. This week’s pending home sales count came in at just under 69,000 single-family homes, which was 2.3% greater than the same week a year ago. That’s really the first week all year where home sales exceeded those of 2024. Home sales aren’t strong, of course.
Will home prices fall in 2025 with more inventory?

1 month ago | housingwire.com | Mike Simonsen

Fluctuating interest rates have been a feature of the housing market over the last three years. As mortgage rates rose, homebuyer demand slowed and inventory grew. In 2025, mortgage rates have stayed stubbornly high for yet another spring buying season. Today, home sales still remain super slow. Our 2025 housing market predictions are based on the assumption that lower mortgage rates will spur demand and boost the number of homes sales transactions.
Could homebuyers find bargains this spring?

1 month ago | housingwire.com | Mike Simonsen

The spring housing market is still trying to spring. Pending home sales inched up for the week with small gains but remained below numbers seen at this time last year. New listings volume is trying to grow with its biggest week since September. List prices inched up for the week, though sales prices did not advance. There are plenty of weak signals in the housing market, of course. The unsold inventory of homes on the market across the country is 28% greater than last year at this time.
Will rates allow for 'peak' homebuying season?

1 month ago | housingwire.com | Mike Simonsen

Over the last two months with economic uncertainty, the bond market has responded and the yield for the 10-year treasury has declined by 60 basis points from 4.8% to 4.2%. The 30-year fixed mortgage has followed suit, recently falling as low as 6.75%, the lowest level since mid-December. It’s quite obvious that stubbornly high mortgage rates slowed down early season homebuyers in the first quarter of 2025. Our weekly pending home sales data continues to run about 3% below last year.
2025 could be the final year of housing inventory shortage

1 month ago | housingwire.com | Mike Simonsen

Home prices in 2025 are a couple percentage points above where they were last year at this time. People often ask, “How can it be possible that home prices are still climbing even though the cost of money is so much higher?”There are obviously fewer buyers who can afford these prices. One reason that home prices have stayed elevated is that inventory nationally is still restricted.