Nanda Ale

Apr 9, 2023 | lesswrong.com | Seth Herd |Roman Hauksson |Nanda Ale |Thane Ruthenis

Epistemic status: head spinning, suddenly unsure of everything in alignment. And unsure of these predictions. I'm following the suggestions in 10 reasons why lists of 10 reasons might be a winning strategy in order to get this out quickly (reason 10 will blow your mind!). I'm hoping to prompt some discussion, rather than try to do the definitive writeup on this topic when this technique was introduced so recently.

Apr 8, 2023 | lesswrong.com | Eliezer Yudkowsky |Nanda Ale |martin Randall |Charlie Steiner

(Related text posted to Twitter; this version is edited and has a more advanced final section.)Imagine yourself in a box, trying to predict the next word - assign as much probability mass to the next token as possible - for all the text on the Internet. Koan:  Is this a task whose difficulty caps out as human intelligence, or at the intelligence level of the smartest human who wrote any Internet text?  What factors make that task easier, or harder?