Nate Cohn

Washington, D.C., United States

Chief Political Analyst, The Upshot at The New York Times

chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.

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Articles

It's Getting Harder for Trump to Keep the Gang Together

3 weeks ago | nytimes.com | Nate Cohn

President Trump and Elon Musk The long-awaited breakup between President Trump and Elon Musk was as personal and petty as anticipated, and yet it's a sign of something much more than a conflict between two of the world's most powerful and mercurial men. It's a signal that Mr. Trump is not finding it easy to hold his populist conservative coalition together. At the beginning of the year, Mr. Trump's coalition did not seem so vulnerable.
Should Republicans Have Won in a Landslide?

3 weeks ago | nytimes.com | Nate Cohn

Could Kamala Harris have won if she had more time? What if she had stayed focused on the economy over the final month? Did Joe Biden's age cost Democrats the election? I've read articles on all of these topics over the last few weeks, and they're all reasonable questions. It's natural to wonder whether any election could have gone differently, especially in a contest as close and consequential as this one.
You've Gone Too Far

2 months ago | nytimes.com | Michael Barbaro |Nate Cohn |Caitlin O’Keefe |Asthaa Chaturvedi |Stella Tan |M.J. Davis Lin | +5 more

The Daily is made by Rachel Quester, Lynsea Garrison, Clare Toeniskoetter, Paige Cowett, Michael Simon Johnson, Brad Fisher, Chris Wood, Jessica Cheung, Stella Tan, Alexandra Leigh Young, Lisa Chow, Eric Krupke, Marc Georges, M.J. Davis Lin, Dan Powell, Sydney Harper, Michael Benoist, Liz O.
Four Perspectives on Trump's Weak Poll Numbers

2 months ago | nytimes.com | Nate Cohn

We have the first New York Times/Siena College poll since the election, and almost everyone will probably agree on this much: The findings are not good for President Trump. You would be hard pressed to find a single "good" number for Mr. Trump in the survey. His job approval rating is just 42 percent, and voters disapproved of his handling of every issue tested in the survey, including longstanding strengths like immigration and the economy.
For Republicans, Tariffs Pose a Risk Like No Other - The New York Times

2 months ago | nytimes.com | Nate Cohn

Trump’s political strength is built on the economy. If it sinks, he could drag his party down with him.
Analysis | For Republicans, tariffs pose a risk like no other

2 months ago | sacbee.com | Nate Cohn

The time after a presidential election can feel like a moment of clarity. The results, after all, are finally in. But over the last two decades, the post-election period hasn’t offered any clarity at all about the future of American politics. The winning party repeatedly convinces itself it has won a mandate or even a generational advantage. The shellshocked losers retreat into internal debate.
Democrats May Be Down, but Their Appetite for Voting Hasn't Dimmed

2 months ago | nytimes.com | Nate Cohn

It can feel as if the Democratic Party has a lot of work to do before it is ready to win elections again. Its agenda appears exhausted. Its voters are disillusioned. Its politicians have struggled to muster vigorous opposition to President Trump. But tonight - and on many Tuesday nights for the next few years - the election results might just make it easy to forget about the party's woes. Already, Democrats have fared well in special elections since Mr. Trump's inauguration.
On Trump, Democrats and a new era of politics: A look at the year ahead

Mar 30, 2025 | lasvegassun.com | Nate Cohn

Hello, everyone! You may have noticed that it’s been a while since my last newsletter. That’s because I’ve been on leave for the last three months — and I’ll be on leave for most of the next three — but I wanted to check in with a few thoughts and programming notes. Since a few of you asked: Yes, The Tilt goes on. The newsletter will ramp back up as I return to work, and needless to say, there is a lot to cover. This is not an ordinary moment in American political history.
A Look at the Year Ahead

Mar 28, 2025 | nytimes.com | Nate Cohn

Image Hello, everyone! You may have noticed that it's been a while since my last newsletter. That's because I've been on leave for the last three months - and I'll be on leave for most of the next three - but I wanted to check in with a few thoughts and programming notes. Since a few of you asked: Yes, The Tilt goes on. The newsletter will ramp back up as I return to work, and needless to say, there is a lot to cover. This is not an ordinary moment in American political history.
Aux États-Unis, la fin de l’ère progressiste

Jan 17, 2025 | courrierinternational.com | Nate Cohn

Quand Barack Obama a été réélu en 2012, on a pu croire à l’avènement d’une nouvelle ère de domination démocrate, propulsée par l’émergence d’une nouvelle génération de jeunes électeurs non religieux et non blancs. Avec le recul, la présidentielle de 2012 fait davantage penser à la fin d’une époque : l’ultime triomphe des mouvements sociaux progressistes des années 1960 sur les républicains reaganiens un temps indétrônables.