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1 month ago | 
hoards.com | Nate Donnay
April 21 2025 08:01 AMDespite all the noise and headlines surrounding tariffs, the only countries with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. dairy products as of April 16th are Canada and China. The volume of product going into Canada that is being hit with additional tariffs is small, but more than 30% of U.S. dry whey, WPC, WPI, and permeate exports go to China, and those are all being hit with retaliatory tariffs of at least 100%.
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2 months ago | 
dairyfoods.com | Nate Donnay
We are setting up for an interesting and potentially volatile dairy market in 2025. We have the normal supply and demand drivers to contend with plus the unknowns around government policy, animal disease, a record amount of new cheese processing capacity coming online and changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order pricing formulas. It’s always hard to write a long-term outlook, but it feels especially hard right now. Let’s start with the milk supply.
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Feb 12, 2025 | 
hoards.com | Nate Donnay
The author is the director of dairy market insight with StoneX Group Inc. At the start of 2025, market sentiment and supply and demand risks are tilted toward the downside, but I think we’ll see decent milk prices and margins for dairy farmers despite the risks. The industry is concerned about new cheese capacity coming online, milk production growing, mixed signals on domestic demand, and the possibility of trade wars that could dent exports.
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Nov 26, 2024 | 
dairyfoods.com | Nate Donnay
The outlook for U.S. dairy products in 2025 varies by product. The two with the most-clear trajectories are cheese and skim powders (nonfat dry milk (NFDM)/skim milk powder (SMP)). U.S. dairy exports are typically a function of available supply in the U.S., supply in other major exporting regions, import demand, as well as prices and price spreads.
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Nov 14, 2024 | 
hoards.com | Nate Donnay
On November 12, USDA released its final decision on the Federal Milk Market Order (FMMO) reform process that started back in 2023. There were only minor changes between the recommended decision released on July 1, 2024, and the final decision. Next, ballots will be mailed out to farmers who were pooled on a federal order during January 2024 to vote on the proposed changes. The ballots must be post-marked by January 15, 2025, and returned to USDA to be counted.
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Sep 27, 2024 | 
dairyfoods.com | Nate Donnay
If we’re just looking at volume, the export outlook for the second half of 2024 and early 2025 is generally steady, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Exports are a function of how much product is available in the U.S., how much is available from the other major exporters, and the demand for imported dairy products. Growth in U.S. milk production is expected to be weak while the growth prospects for Europe look stronger in Q4/Q1.
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Sep 19, 2024 | 
hoards.com | Nate Donnay
The price of butter in Europe hit a new record high in September at around $4 per pound (€7,950 per metric ton). The previous high was about $3.60 per pound (€7,478 per metric ton), which was recorded back in June 2022. The bad news is butter prices across the major dairy exporters are much less correlated than powder prices, so it is unlikely the strength in Europe will pull U.S. butter prices up to $4.
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Sep 12, 2024 | 
dairyprocessing.com | Nate Donnay
US dairy supply and demand is highly seasonal. In the first half of the year, we produce more than we consume, and inventories build. Then we rely on those inventories in the second half of the year as milk production falls and consumption steps higher for year-end holidays in November and December. Since we’re past the midpoint in the year, it’s worth looking at how the markets developed in the first half and what we might see in the second half of the year.
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Aug 29, 2024 | 
hoards.com | Nate Donnay
Last month, I wrote about how the U.S. dairy market is in a Goldilocks period: production is weak and demand is not great, but it is good enough to keep milk prices at profitable levels given the poor production. Due to a lack of replacement heifers and avian influenza, it might be hard for the industry to boost milk production despite the profitable margins. Under those conditions, no news is good news, and frankly, I don’t have much news or analysis to share.
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Aug 1, 2024 | 
hoards.com | Nate Donnay
The U.S. dairy market seems to be in a Goldilocks period. Relatively weak production is matching up with relatively weak demand to keep milk prices at good levels, while lower feed costs are boosting margins for dairy farmers. I don’t know how long this will last, but let’s walk through the situation. USDA just released the June Milk Production report, and headline U.S. milk production was down 1% from last year, which was a little worse than the 0.7% drop I was forecasting.
