Nate Donnay

Minnesota

Contributor at Hoard's Dairyman

Featured in: Favicon

dairyprocessing.com

linkedin.com Favicon

independent.ie Favicon

foodbusinessnews.net Favicon

dairyfoods.com Favicon

agra-net.com Favicon

hoards.com

Articles

How long will the tariffs’ chess game last?

3 weeks ago | dairyfoods.com | Nate Donnay

I anxiously awaited the Liberation Day announcement thinking we would finally “know” what was going to happen, but I quickly realized that the announcement made that day was just the first move in a long and intense chess game, or it was just the lighting of a fuse and we have no idea how long that fuse is or what it is attached to. Either way, no one can know exactly what is going to happen or how this will play out.
How long will the tarifs’ chess game last?

3 weeks ago | dairyfoods.com | Nate Donnay

I anxiously awaited the Liberation Day announcement thinking we would finally “know” what was going to happen, but I quickly realized that the announcement made that day was just the first move in a long and intense chess game, or it was just the lighting of a fuse and we have no idea how long that fuse is or what it is attached to. Either way, no one can know exactly what is going to happen or how this will play out.
Retaliatory tariff impacts on whey exports

2 months ago | hoards.com | Nate Donnay

April 21 2025 08:01 AMDespite all the noise and headlines surrounding tariffs, the only countries with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. dairy products as of April 16th are Canada and China. The volume of product going into Canada that is being hit with additional tariffs is small, but more than 30% of U.S. dry whey, WPC, WPI, and permeate exports go to China, and those are all being hit with retaliatory tariffs of at least 100%.
The dairy industry’s supply and demand outlook

Mar 31, 2025 | dairyfoods.com | Nate Donnay

We are setting up for an interesting and potentially volatile dairy market in 2025. We have the normal supply and demand drivers to contend with plus the unknowns around government policy, animal disease, a record amount of new cheese processing capacity coming online and changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order pricing formulas. It’s always hard to write a long-term outlook, but it feels especially hard right now. Let’s start with the milk supply.
Optimism remains for 2025

Feb 12, 2025 | hoards.com | Nate Donnay

The author is the director of dairy market insight with StoneX Group Inc. At the start of 2025, market sentiment and supply and demand risks are tilted toward the downside, but I think we’ll see decent milk prices and margins for dairy farmers despite the risks. The industry is concerned about new cheese capacity coming online, milk production growing, mixed signals on domestic demand, and the possibility of trade wars that could dent exports.
A sunny outlook for U.S. dairy

Nov 26, 2024 | dairyfoods.com | Nate Donnay

The outlook for U.S. dairy products in 2025 varies by product. The two with the most-clear trajectories are cheese and skim powders (nonfat dry milk (NFDM)/skim milk powder (SMP)). U.S. dairy exports are typically a function of available supply in the U.S., supply in other major exporting regions, import demand, as well as prices and price spreads.
What may come from the final FMMO decision

Nov 14, 2024 | hoards.com | Nate Donnay

On November 12, USDA released its final decision on the Federal Milk Market Order (FMMO) reform process that started back in 2023. There were only minor changes between the recommended decision released on July 1, 2024, and the final decision. Next, ballots will be mailed out to farmers who were pooled on a federal order during January 2024 to vote on the proposed changes. The ballots must be post-marked by January 15, 2025, and returned to USDA to be counted.
What is the outlook for U.S. Dairy exports?

Sep 27, 2024 | dairyfoods.com | Nate Donnay

If we’re just looking at volume, the export outlook for the second half of 2024 and early 2025 is generally steady, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Exports are a function of how much product is available in the U.S., how much is available from the other major exporters, and the demand for imported dairy products. Growth in U.S. milk production is expected to be weak while the growth prospects for Europe look stronger in Q4/Q1.
European prices could be a US opportunity

Sep 19, 2024 | hoards.com | Nate Donnay

The price of butter in Europe hit a new record high in September at around $4 per pound (€7,950 per metric ton). The previous high was about $3.60 per pound (€7,478 per metric ton), which was recorded back in June 2022. The bad news is butter prices across the major dairy exporters are much less correlated than powder prices, so it is unlikely the strength in Europe will pull U.S. butter prices up to $4.
Erratic demand: Dairy prices expected to rise

Sep 12, 2024 | dairyprocessing.com | Nate Donnay

US dairy supply and demand is highly seasonal. In the first half of the year, we produce more than we consume, and inventories build. Then we rely on those inventories in the second half of the year as milk production falls and consumption steps higher for year-end holidays in November and December. Since we’re past the midpoint in the year, it’s worth looking at how the markets developed in the first half and what we might see in the second half of the year.