-
1 month ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
We’ve just launched this landing page, where we’ll update President Trump’s approval ratings several times per week. Sometimes, you’ll find a quick note here analyzing the latest trends. And sometimes, approval ratings can be pretty boring, so we won’t have much to say. As of launch, Trump is more popular than at a comparable point in his first term, but on something of a downslope, at a 48 percent approval rating 🟢 and an equal 48 percent disapproval rating 🟠.
-
2 months ago | 
ignorance.ai | Charlie Guo |Nate Silver
It's strange - and rare - for me to write long-form pieces about the same company two weeks in a row. But here's the thing - I am astounded at how big of a splash DeepSeek is making. It's on the front page of The New York Times, CNN, CNBC, Fox: you name it. It hit #1 in the US App Store over the weekend and is still there. It's reportedly causing panic within Meta, and has drawn a response from OpenAI's Sam Altman.
-
2 months ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
We live in interesting times. On Monday morning, tech stocks plunged on investor shock and awe over DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company that has built — I’m leaving out a lot of details — an open-source large language model (LLM) that performs competitively with name brands like ChatGPT at a fraction of the computing cost. Meanwhile, two stories got buried in the avalanche of activity by President Trump last week. Trump rescinded a Biden executive order on AI safety.
-
2 months ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
The next edition of Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions is coming soon! Paid subscribers can submit questions in last month’s thread. Borrowing a feature that’s been popular at other Substacks, I’m here to give you some predictions for what Trump’s second term will bring. A lot of them, in fact: 113. Just how likely are tail risk outcomes like the U.S. undergoing a severe constitutional crisis or Trump remaining in office for a third term? What about more ordinary things like a recession?
-
Jan 24, 2025 | 
nytimes.com | Frank Bruni |Bethany McLean |Nate Silver
What makes this dynamic in the new Trump administration so fascinating?
-
Jan 22, 2025 | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
In his inaugural address on Monday, President Trump asserted that we have just entered the “golden age of America,” one in which the United States will “flourish and be respected again all over the world.” And make no mistake: Trump envisions this as a Conservative Golden Age. In a series of executive orders announced by the White House, Trump has already swung policy far to the right on immigration, the environment, transgender rights and other issues.
-
Jan 19, 2025 | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
Donald Trump, the 45th President, will also become the 47th President at noon on Monday, and we have you covered with a trio of long politics newsletters that we think you’ll really like. This is a final reflection on the outgoing 46th president, Joe Biden. Then, we’ll have two forward-looking pieces to run during the week. One (paywalled) is a set of probabilistic predictions on what will happen during Trump’s second term. The other (free) is a story placing the moment in a historical context.
-
Jan 13, 2025 | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
I’m gradually making my way back home after spending essentially all of the past month on the road. That should lead to an increase in newsletter volume: travel tends to produce a lot of half-finished ideas and drafts, and it’s been a long while since I’ve felt like I had an open stretch of runway without looming deadlines or commitments. Today, though, let’s close the loop on my 2-part series on the Baseball Hall of Fame.
-
Jan 8, 2025 | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
On Tuesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a series of changes to Facebook and Instagram that will considerably dial down the level of content moderation on those platforms. As someone who tries to be non-hypocritically pro-free speech, my inclination is to welcome the changes. But Zuck’s motivations are questionable: there’s no doubt that Meta and other media companies are under explicit and intense political pressure from the incoming Trump administration.
-
Jan 6, 2025 | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
In this interim post-election period — I say “interim” because once I get back from Asia next week, it’ll finally be time to focus more on developing our long-term plans — I’ve felt it’s been valuable to take mostly deeper dives. This is another of those: the first of a two-part series on the Baseball Hall of Fame.
