Neil Irwin

2 weeks ago | axios.com | Courtenay Brown |Neil Irwin

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/AxiosA run of better-than-expected indicators — including Wednesday's inflation report — so far point to a strikingly resilient economy. Why it matters: Those waiting for signs of a tariff-wrecked economy will have to keep waiting. Economists anticipate President Trump's policies, particularly those related to trade, will weaken growth and raise consumer prices. But how, when, or even if looks more uncertain than ever.

2 weeks ago | axios.com | Neil Irwin

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/AxiosNegotiations usually boil down to leverage — specifically, who has more of it. In the U.S.-China talks underway Monday in London, the question of who has the upper hand boils down to macro- versus micro-economics. The big picture: A slew of data out of China shows the massive cost that U.S. tariffs impose on the Chinese economy, reflecting both underlying economic weakness and what the nation stands to lose if no trade peace is reached.

2 weeks ago | flipboard.com | Neil Irwin

NowNew York CNN — US stocks were mixed on Monday and the S&P 500 approached an all-time high as trade talks between the US and China kicked off in London. The Dow was lower by 30 points as of midday. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 rose 0.13% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.36%. Stocks were …

3 weeks ago | axios.com | Courtenay Brown |Neil Irwin

Fed chair Jerome Powell. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesThe new numbers are the worst of all worlds for those hoping for Fed interest rate cuts — including the guy in the Oval Office. State of play: The Fed is on high alert for any meaningful deterioration in the labor market, which could trigger interest rate cuts to try to fulfill its mandate for maximum employment.

3 weeks ago | axios.com | Neil Irwin

Data: Budget Lab at Yale; Chart: Axios VisualsIt's hard to overstate how rapidly President Trump has changed the very underpinnings of U.S. trade policy since the start of February. But this chart sums it up. Why it matters: Trump is seeking to reset America's economic relationship with the rest of the world. But he has also introduced a trade policy landscape that changes by the day. Tariffs with major trading partners are not only higher than in decades — they have also become far more volatile.