-
May 15, 2024 | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Niels Graham
China Fiscal and Structural Reform International Financial Institutions International Markets Macroeconomics Trade China Pathfinder: Q1 2024 update In March 2024, China’s Premier Li Qiang capped off a bumpy first quarter by cancelling a traditional annual press conference to talk about the government’s plans for the coming year. But in many ways, China’s policy measures spoke for themselves. The year-to-date story has been one of harried effort to support a faltering stock market, ramp up...
-
Feb 22, 2024 | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Niels Graham
China Economic Sanctions Economy & Business Macroeconomics Russia Trade United States and Canada Chinese exports have replaced the EU as the lifeline of Russia’s economy Two years after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s external trading relationship has stabilized. Following a drastic collapse of more than 50 percent of imports in the immediate aftermath of the attack, Russian imports have seemingly returned to their 2019 average. Integral to this recovery is the booming trading...
-
Feb 13, 2024 | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Niels Graham
Economy & Business Energy Transitions European Union Eurozone Fiscal and Structural Reform Macroeconomics United States and Canada The IRA and CHIPS Act are supercharging US manufacturing construction Last April, at a speech at the Brookings Institution, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated: “We will unapologetically pursue our industrial strategy at home, but we are unambiguously committed to not leaving our friends behind.” Nearly one year later, it is clear the Biden...
-
Feb 5, 2024 | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Niels Graham |Jeremy Mark
Issue Brief February 5, 2024 • 10:00 am ET China Pathfinder update: Lack of policy solutions in second half of 2023 belies official data By GeoEconomics Center and Rhodium Group Through the second half of 2023, the gap between China’s impressive official data and visibly underwhelming consumer demand, unresolved local government debt problems, and an unprecedented drop in foreign direct investment was stark. The China Pathfinder framework scans for evidence of market policy reorientation to...
-
Jan 22, 2024 | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Niels Graham |Hung Tran
Brazil China Economic Sanctions Economy & Business Indo-Pacific International Markets Macroeconomics Russia South Africa Trade Dedollarization is not just geopolitics, economic fundamentals matter Over the past decade, many countries—primarily emerging markets—have endeavored to reduce their reliance on the US dollar in global payment transactions. Some of the push for dedollarization is in reaction to the perceived overreach of US financial power—particularly following Russia’s invasion of...
-
Dec 11, 2023 | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Niels Graham
China Economy & Business Energy Transitions European Union Geopolitics & Energy Security Trade United States and Canada China’s manufacturing overcapacity threatens global green goods trade Chinese lending is undergoing a deep, structural transition away from the property sector to support manufacturing. The shift is generating serious fears of overcapacity and will likely accelerate the fractionalization of the global trading system as countries move to protect their own industry. In just...
-
Nov 17, 2023 | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Jeremy Mark |Niels Graham
China Economy & Business Indo-Pacific International Markets Taiwan Trade Relying on old enemies: The challenge of Taiwan’s economic ties to China Introduction Coercion and codependence Semiconductors as an economic bastion Taiwan’s expanding trade horizons Vulnerabilities on the home front The international dimension Conclusion and recommendations About the authors Global attention to Taiwan tends to focus on China’s military threats and punitive economic actions. Combined with US officials’...
-
Nov 14, 2023 | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Niels Graham
Economy & Business International Markets Macroeconomics United States and Canada The economic implications of a federal government shutdown For the third time this year, stalemate in Washington is again threatening the US economic outlook. If Congress is unable to agree on a funding bill by November 17, the federal government will be forced to halt most discretionary spending. Depending on its length and severity, this shutdown could rattle global bond markets, increase November unemployment,...
-
Nov 7, 2023 | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Niels Graham
Australia China East Asia Economy & Business Indo-Pacific International Markets Macroeconomics South Asia Trade United States and Canada What to expect from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum On November 15th US President Joe Biden, along with leaders from twenty other Pacific economies, will head to San Francisco for the 30th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. The primary goal for the Biden Administration’s 2023 APEC host year has been to “demonstrate the enduring...
-
Aug 31, 2023 | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Josh Lipsky |Niels Graham
Economy & Business Fiscal and Structural Reform Macroeconomics Russia South Asia Indonesia’s economy will surpass Russia’s sooner than expected. Here’s what that says about the global economy. In 1890, Russian prince Nicholas Alexandrovich, who would soon become Czar Nicholas II, took a trip across Asia. In February his cruise ships dropped anchor in the Bay of Batavia (modern day Jakarta Bay) on the island of Java. He spent several weeks touring the island, complaining about the heat, and...
