Nuño Sempere

Nov 6, 2024 | forecasting.substack.com | Nuño Sempere

Huge US election volumesRobinhood added presidential prediction markets. Richard Ngo on why he is not a BayesianCurrent takeaways from the 2024 US electionPlatformsPolymarketKalshiMetaculusManifoldOther platformsProjectsResearchOdds and endsPolymarket beat legacy institutions at processing information, in real time and in general. It was just much faster at calling states, and more confident earlier on the correct outcome.

Oct 28, 2024 | lesswrong.com | Michaël Trazzi |Gavin Leech |Elizabeth Van Nostrand |Nuño Sempere

What do I mean by “homegrown”?

Sep 30, 2024 | blog.sentinel-team.org | Nuño Sempere

Status: Yellow. Corresponding response team instructions: increase alertness, process information below, brainstorm possible actions if meaningful. Don’t mobilize yet, as the tractability of the issue seems low. An Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon appears to be imminent, as a US official has said that Israel has told the US that it plans to launch a ground operation “imminently”.