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Jan 19, 2025 | 
pmichaillat.substack.com | Pascal Michaillat
P-hacking occurs when scientists engage in various behaviors that increase their chances of reporting statistically significant results.
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Nov 19, 2024 | 
hoover.org | Pascal Michaillat
This essay is based on the working paper “Modeling Migration-Induced Unemployment” by Pascal Michaillat. Public anxieties about migration often focus on the idea that migrant workers "steal jobs" from local workers. This sentiment is reflected in the rise of anti-immigration political parties and policies in Western democracies.
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Oct 30, 2024 | 
hoover.org | Pascal Michaillat
MyHoover delivers a personalized experience at Hoover.org. In a few easy steps, create an account and receive the most recent analysis from Hoover fellows tailored to your specific policy interests. Watch this video for an overview of MyHoover. Create Account
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Oct 10, 2024 | 
nber.org | Pascal Michaillat
I thank Christoph Albert, Leah Boustan, Varanya Chaubey, Anthony Edo, Yagan Hazard, Claudio Labanca, Michael Lachanski, Joan Monras, Emmanuel Saez, Stefanie Stantcheva, Jonathan Vogel, Romain Wacziarg, and Josef Zweimueller for helpful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Related
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Oct 8, 2024 | 
brookings.edu | Janice Eberly |Pascal Michaillat |Louise Sheiner |Jón Steinsson
The full-employment rate of unemployment may seem like a contradiction, but in fact, economists have long understood that some unemployment is necessary. In their new paper, Pascal Michaillat of UC Santa Cruz and Saez of the University of California, Berkeley present a new formula for identifying the efficient rate of unemployment in the U.S. and find that the labor market has been inefficiently slack for most of the last century.
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Sep 30, 2024 | 
pascalmichaillat.org | Pascal Michaillat
PaperImmigration is often blamed for increasing unemployment among local workers. However, standard models, such as the neoclassical model and the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides matching model, inherently assume that immigrants are absorbed into the labor market without affecting local unemployment. This paper presents a more general model of migration that allows for the possibility that not only the wages but also the unemployment rate of local workers may be affected by the arrival of newcomers.
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Jan 8, 2024 | 
pmichaillat.substack.com | Pascal Michaillat
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Jan 7, 2024 | 
pmichaillat.substack.com | Pascal Michaillat
The US labor-market numbers for December 2023 just came out. This post uses the latest numbers on vacant jobs and unemployed workers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute three key statistics:Labor-market tightness Efficient unemployment rate Unemployment gapThe US labor market remains in the exact same position as in November: unemployment rate and vacancy rate remain the same, so labor-market tightness and efficient unemployment are also unchanged.
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Dec 8, 2023 | 
pmichaillat.substack.com | Pascal Michaillat
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Dec 8, 2023 | 
pmichaillat.substack.com | Pascal Michaillat
The US labor-market numbers for November 2023 just came out. This post uses the latest numbers on vacant jobs and unemployed workers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute three key statistics:Labor-market tightness Efficient unemployment rate Unemployment gapOverall, the US labor market cooled very slightly in September, but it remains inefficiently tight. The Beveridge curve shifted inwards somewhat, lowering the efficient unemployment rate to 4.4%.
