Paul Kedrosky

Yasuj

Featured in: Favicon

medium.com Favicon

businessinsider.com Favicon

newyorker.com Favicon

hbr.org

Articles

Kamala Harris, Prediction Markets, and the Limits to Arbitrage

Aug 16, 2024 | paulkedrosky.com | Paul Kedrosky

Everyone loves a good arb. In finance, arbitrage opportunitiesâ€”the same asset selling for different prices in different marketsâ€”are prized: risk-free profits await. Simply sell the expensive version, buy the cheap one, and wait for the money to roll in. The reality of running an arb is more complex than casual language would suggest. In particular, in the real world there are limits to arbitrage, which help explain why apparent mispricings persist in markets, sometimes for a very long time.
Knee Mysteries, and How ACL Repair is Changing

Jun 20, 2024 | simplavida.com | Paul Kedrosky

We have a new podcast episode out. A free preview is below, as well as being available on the podcast service of your choice. Premium subscribers have a private feed via which they get access to the full episode. Here is an overview of the topics:In this free preview, Paul and Howard start with Howard's recent viral tweet about ACL surgery and the discussions it sparked. They get into knee anatomy, focusing on the function and importance of the ACL.
LLMs as Organisms, Part 1: Old Man Shouts at Multinomial

May 30, 2024 | paulkedrosky.com | Paul Kedrosky

A few weeks ago I gave a talk on my current thinking about AI, risk, and progress, so I thought I would rewrite ideas from the talk here. I will do it in a series of short posts, starting with this one. The core idea of the talk is that underneath much of what is going on is that we are developing a new grammar, a set of interconnected atomic units that allows us to think about the world in different ways.
The Lithium Boom, Retractions, Real Estate, and Skateboarding

Dec 13, 2023 | paulkedrosky.com | Paul Kedrosky

Before getting started, two things: 1/ Consider becoming a supporter, if you're not already. You get full archive access and premium notes. 2/ Know someone who might like to read this? Share it with them via the links at the bottom of the newsletter. Four things today, and, as ever, send me a note if something you see that you want to draw to my attention.
The Case of the 92-Year-Old World Champion Rower (Podcast)

Nov 20, 2023 | simplavida.com | Paul Kedrosky

Nov 20, 2023 The Case of the 92-Year-Old World Champion Rower (Podcast) Paul talks to the author of a paper about a 92-year-old, four-time world champion rower. We get insights about the many benefits of preserving fitness through life, as well as about the importance of clear objectives and goals. In this latest episode, Paul talks to Dr. Lorcan Daly, a sports physiology researcher and the co-author of a recent paper about a 92-year-old, four-time world champion indoor rower.
Sic Semper Tyrannis: Stuck in a Timeline

Nov 9, 2023 | paulkedrosky.com | Paul Kedrosky

Three things first: 1/ I enjoy working on this project and appreciate all the generous support I have received. Consider becoming a supporter, if you're not already. 2/ Know someone who might like to read this? Share it with them via the links at the bottom of the post. 3/ I'm trying an experiment with adding an audio version to posts. You can see it on desktop or in mobile, but not in emails.
Revenge Effects in Waste, Fast Fashion, and EVs

Oct 17, 2023 | paulkedrosky.com | Paul Kedrosky

Before getting started, three things: 1/ Consider becoming a supporter, if you're not already. There it lots more members-only stuff coming, including interactive risk simulations, etc. 2/ Know someone who might like to read this? Share it with them via the links at the bottom of the post. 3/ I have a big new piece coming out Thursday on GLP-1s, those anti-obesity drugs getting so much attention. Weirdly, I think they're still badly misunderstood, as I will explain.
Muscle, and Why We Don't Want to Lose It

Aug 29, 2023 | simplavida.com | Howard J. Luks |Paul Kedrosky

We talk a lot here about cardiovascular fitness and how it's the ultimate health drug, free and effective. But muscle is at least as important, making its loss an equally serious problem, even if too often overlooked. The technical term for muscle loss is "sarcopenia," the involuntary loss of muscle mass, and it's an evil up there with Marvel villains. Sadly, however, it is more common than some Thanosian movie characters, and it accelerates with age.
Travels in 2023 America

Aug 26, 2023 | paulkedrosky.com | Paul Kedrosky

â€śWe find after years of struggle that we do not take a trip; a trip takes us.â€ťâ€• John Steinbeck, Travels with Charley: In Search of AmericaI recently drove across America and back again. The eastward part began by traversing the volcanic wreckage of central Nevada. Driving east, away from the sheer wall of the Eastern Sierras, traffic dropped to near zero and we crossed into Nevada from California under a steady drizzle.
The Many Paradoxes of William Stanley Jevons, Part 2

Aug 1, 2023 | paulkedrosky.com | Paul Kedrosky

This is Part 2 of a two-part series on the paradoxes of 19th-century economist William Stanley Jevons, and how, given modern energy markets, he is more important than ever. You can find the first part here. The England to which William Stanley Jevons returned in 1860 after six years in Australia must have seemed almost alien. Factories were everywhere burning coal and spewing smoke; forests, long in decline, were now nearly absent.