Paulina Jaramillo

2 weeks ago | nature.com | Christopher Galik |Aranya Venkatesh |Katherine Jordan |Aditya Sinha |Paulina Jaramillo |Jeremiah Johnson | +1 more

In the absence of comprehensive federal greenhouse gas mitigation policy, state-led strategies may play a pivotal role, particularly following the 2024 United States presidential election. Using a detailed energy system optimization model, we examine the outcomes of 23 climate-minded states pursuing net-zero emissions targets compared to a federal carbon cap achieving equivalent CO2-eq reductions. Here we show that state-led decarbonization results in distinct technology choices, a 0.7% increase in system costs, and nationwide emissions reduction of 46% — substantial, but insufficient for ambitious climate goals. This pathway relies more on electrification, with 952 terawatt-hours more generation in 2050, reallocating 17.2% of emissions to the power sector. Some regions favor solar, wind, and storage, while direct air capture emerges as critical, particularly in California and the Northeast. Inter-regional trading supports and complicates mitigation efforts, underscoring the need for careful policy design. Overall, our findings highlight how state-led and federal decarbonization approaches can yield differing energy portfolios to achieve similar emissions reductions. In the absence of federal decarbonization, states can drive significant greenhouse gas emissions reductions at comparable costs to federal action, with particular reliance on electrification of end uses and a decarbonized power grid.

Sep 16, 2024 | nature.com | Aditya Sinha |Aranya Venkatesh |Katherine Jordan |Hadi Eshraghi |Paulina Jaramillo

AbstractEnergy system optimization models offer insights into energy and emissions futures through least-cost optimization. However, real-world energy systems often deviate from deterministic scenarios, necessitating rigorous uncertainty exploration in macro-energy system modeling. This study uses modeling techniques to generate diverse near cost-optimal net-zero CO2 pathways for the United States’ energy system.