Pavel K. Baev

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Articles

Moscow Sticks to Peace Denials Despite War Exhaustion

Jan 13, 2025 | jamestown.org | Pavel K. Baev

Executive Summary:The Russian offensive in Donbas has stalled, creating a deadlock with heavy casualties. The Kremlin remains committed to Ukraine’s capitulation, ignoring the heavy casualties in its stalled Donbas offensive, dismissing ceasefire discussions, and disregarding public support for peace. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks a conditions-free meeting with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump to appear strong despite setbacks and U.S. incentives for a pause.
Russian Counter-Offensive in the International Arena Has Lost Momentum – PRIO Blogs

Jan 9, 2025 | blogs.prio.org | Pavel K. Baev

One of the key goals for 2024 that President Vladimir Putin had apparently set at the end of the second year of the Ukraine war was to execute a sustained foreign policy counter-offensive to reduce Russia’s international isolation to irrelevance. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tries to claim success in achieving this goal and strengthening Russia’s ability to influence the transformation of the world order, while noting that he cherishes no illusions regarding the prospects for 2025.
Escalation Management: Putin-style, Ukraine-challenged, and NATO-pursued – PRIO Blogs

Dec 9, 2024 | blogs.prio.org | Pavel K. Baev

Russian missile strike on the sprawling industrial complex in Dnipro on November 21 produced far more strategic resonance than material damage – and has reopened hard questions about the constant mutation of the long Russia-Ukraine war and the methods of managing its escalation.
Putin’s ‘Three Escalations’ Affect Prospect of Peace in Ukraine – PRIO Blogs

Nov 26, 2024 | blogs.prio.org | Pavel K. Baev

Russia’s strategy in executing its aggressive war against Ukraine, passing the 1,000-day mark last week, puts the country’s economy, society, and armed forces under enormous pressure that Moscow’s militaristic propaganda cannot quite cover. As Russia’s war in Ukraine passes the 1,000-day mark, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy has turned to escalatory steps aimed at undermining Ukraine’s will to resist and weakening Western resolve to confront Russian aggression.
Putin's 'Three Escalations' Affect Prospect of Peace in Ukraine

Nov 25, 2024 | jamestown.org | Pavel K. Baev

Executive Summary:As Russia’s war in Ukraine passes the 1,000-day mark, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy has turned to escalatory steps aimed at undermining Ukraine’s will to resist and weakening Western resolve to confront Russian aggression. The change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, deployment of North Korean troops, and strike using the intermediate-range ballistic missile “Oreshnik” gave Putin the illusion of gaining control in the war.
How is Trump’s reelection likely to affect US foreign policy?

Nov 14, 2024 | brookings.edu | Pavel K. Baev |Vanda Felbab-Brown |Jeffrey Feltman |James Goldgeier

On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump was elected for a second non-consecutive term as the 47th president of the United States. Below, Brookings experts break down what Trump’s reelection likely means for the future of U.S. foreign policy. Moscow was eagerly expecting discord and disarray after the U.S. elections, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sly hints that he would prefer a Harris administration provided only thin camouflage for his real preference.
Perplexed Vladimir Putin Reckons With Outcome of US Elections – PRIO Blogs

Nov 14, 2024 | blogs.prio.org | Pavel K. Baev

The Kremlin had confidently expected confusion and turmoil following the US presidential election. Instead, a definite outcome and the commitment to a smooth transition of power are set to shape the US political environment for the next couple of months. The significant majority of Russians preferred Donald Trump as the next US president, and among the Russian oligarchs, new hopes for an “unfreezing” of assets are blossoming (Re: Russia, November 5; Forbes.ru, November 8).
Perplexed Vladimir Putin Reckons With Outcome of US Elections

Nov 12, 2024 | jamestown.org | Pavel K. Baev

Executive Summary:The Kremlin is hopeful that the new US President-elect Donald Trump may disrupt Western unity and potentially ease pressure on Russia, especially concerning sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin frames Russia’s confrontation with the West as a global mission, but this approach may falter if Trump prioritizes ending the war without affirming Russia’s perceived victory.
Putin and Kim Look for Opportunities Amid US Elections Turmoil – PRIO Blogs

Nov 5, 2024 | blogs.prio.org | Pavel K. Baev

The US presidential election, which has been dominating the global news, will come to its natural culmination on November 5, even if the outcome remains uncertain for many more days. Even in Russia, where war and inflation are major concerns, official sources report that more than 60 percent of adults are following the US elections. Independent polls show that only about 19 percent are following closely, however (TASS, October 31).
Putin and Kim Look for Opportunities Amid US Elections Turmoil

Nov 4, 2024 | jamestown.org | Pavel K. Baev

Executive Summary:Russia is leveraging the United States’ preoccupation with its presidential election to advance its strategic interests, bringing in additional military support from North Korea with the arrival of North Korean troops and supplies. This alliance benefits both parties, as North Korea gains technological support for its missile program.