Peter Keating
Writer at Freelance
investigative/political/statistical/financial narrative journalist Contributing Writer at Meadowlark Media and The Bond Buyer, ex-ESPN [email protected]
Articles
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2 weeks ago |
nytimes.com | Jordan Brenner |Peter Keating
What do you do when you write an annual series about NCAA tournament upsets during a year when there aren't any? You take stock and start thinking about the future. And right now, we're wondering whether March has forever lost much of its madness, courtesy of NIL payments and the transfer portal. The 2025 tourney started with chalk and never relented. After one round, only three teams seeded 11th or higher remained: No. 11 Drake, No. 12 Colorado State and No. 12 McNeese.
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2 weeks ago |
nytimes.com | Peter Keating |Jordan Brenner
Two years ago, as the universe was just falling in love with Caitlin Clark, we trained our statistical model, Slingshot, on the women's NCAA Tournament for the first time. And an obsession of a different kind set Slingshot's spreadsheets aflutter.
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4 weeks ago |
nytimes.com | Peter Keating |Jordan Brenner
NCAA Tournament fans know that look. The eye-catching garments, the stylish hair, the sleek, slip-on shoes ... only it usually isn't John Calipari in the role of Cinderella. And yet, with the Sweet 16 set to begin Thursday, here we are. Where are the actual upsets this year? A whopping 13 of the top 16 seeds are still alive, leaving very little room for serious underdogs. Right now the men's bracket looks a lot more like a quirky news segment at Reed College than Villanova in 1985.
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1 month ago |
nytimes.com | Jordan Brenner |Peter Keating
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 10 New Mexico LobosUpset Chance: 21.3 percentOur model sees Michigan State as roughly 11 points per 100 possessions better than New Mexico. The Lobos, then, need to find a way to generate more possessions to make up for that edge. So let's talk about turnovers. The Lobos force opponents to cough the ball up on 20.4 percent of possessions, 32nd in the country.
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1 month ago |
nytimes.com | Peter Keating |Jordan Brenner
Thursday was a pretty good day for Slingshot. Not only did our statistical model get to enjoy 16 games over 12 hours, it also got some stuff right. Like McNeese over Clemson. And Drake over Missouri. It suffered some setbacks, too - we're looking at you, VCU and UCSD. But Slingshot isn't one to dwell in the past. Instead, let's turn its attention to Saturday's second-round games that meet the Bracket Breakers's upset qualification of at least a five-seed difference. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs.
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To @BetsContrarian, @Shawn_Gaff and anyone else looking for the giant-killing work #JordanBrenner and I do, Thanks for caring! And you can find us on our #Underdogs podcast and here at The Athletic https://t.co/40BWaRMUAb
Big thanks to Gill Alexander and @beatingthebook for inviting me on today to talk #BracketBreakera - indeed a tradition like no other!
If you're filling out b rackets at the last minute, don't panic! @JordanBrenner and I have you covered with another edition of #BracketBreakert - with best upset chances and analysis of every region https://t.co/40BWaRMUAb
