Peter Kellner
Freelance Writer at Freelance
Articles
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1 week ago |
thegrocer.co.uk | Peter Kellner
In more than 50 years of reporting and conducting opinion polls, I’ve rarely seen such a clear, consistent story of progressive change in public attitudes as I have with smoking. Time and again we’ve seen the same pattern. A health-related controversy sparks fierce debate. Campaigners make their case, opinion shifts, MPs respond, parliament passes reform, the law takes effect – and the public overwhelmingly approves. The outcry fades.
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1 week ago |
kellnerp.substack.com | Peter Kellner
Trust me: I’m a pollster. Doubtful? Bear with me. I have advised many campaigns and political parties over the years. I know what polls can do. As important, I know what they can’t. A big weakness of Keir Starmer’s government is that it has failed to tell the difference. Thanks for reading Peter’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. In the past few days, matters have come to a head. Maybe the lesson has been learned at last.
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3 weeks ago |
prospectmagazine.co.uk | Peter Kellner
Conservatives who advocate an electoral pact with Reform might usefully start with a short news item in the Times of 3rd October 1903. It reported that the Liberals would run only one candidate in the two-seat constituency of Leicester and make room for a Labour candidate.
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1 month ago |
prospectmagazine.co.uk | Peter Kellner
Like a driver hurtling towards a cliff-edge who chooses to press the accelerator, Labour risks responding to last week’s elections in precisely the wrong way. It has time to draw back from the precipice, but not much. The argument that needs to be scotched goes like this. Reform is now Labour’s main threat. Its voters are committed Brexiters. Any whiff of friendship with Brussels will cost the party votes it can’t afford to lose.
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1 month ago |
theneweuropean.co.uk | Peter Kellner
Last week, previewing yesterday’s Runcorn & Helsby by-election, I suggested a political version of the Micawber principle: victory by 50 votes, the result happiness; defeat by 50 votes, result misery. OK, Reform’s Sarah Pochin won by just six votes. But the principle holds; and by the same token Labour can celebrate three narrow mayoral victories overnight. However, Labour’s vote fell alarmingly in each of the mayoral contests; and early indications from county council contests confirm the pattern.
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Is our two-party system on the way out? The past century has been punctuated by predictions that it would collapse. It hasn't. My new year Substack post discusses whether it now faces a more potent challenge than in the past. https://t.co/InxIafalVE
Elon Musk is talking to @Nigel_Farage about how to help @reformparty_uk. Could Farage become Prime Minister? Unlikely but not impossible. Here is what it would take. https://t.co/ZCv5lzjiNo
Twas the night(mare) before Christmas... Suppose Farage asked one of his team at Reform to set out a strategy for victory. This Substack post is my stab at the advice they could give him. https://t.co/ZCv5lzjiNo