Peter Kellner
Freelance Writer at Freelance
Articles
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1 week ago |
prospectmagazine.co.uk | Peter Kellner
In the months after a decisive election, voting intention polls have no predictive value. That is why I have largely ignored them so far. But tracked over time, they do tell us something. That is why I am writing about them now. They confirm that this time the century-long Labour-Tory duopoly really does look to be on the way out. The latest polls show a tight three-way race in mainland Britain, with Labour, Reform and Conservative all around 22 to 25 per cent.
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1 month ago |
kellnerp.substack.com | Peter Kellner
Below is the text of the Times editorial on October 1, 1938, on the Munich agreement which Neville Chamberlain had negotiated with Adolf Hitler. First a brief recap. Following the Anschluss in March 1938, when Germany annexed Austria, Hitler turned his attention to Czechoslovakia. Around one in four Czechs were German speakers, mostly living in Sudetenland, close to the German border. With Hitler’s encouragement, the Sudeten Nazi party agitated for autonomy.
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1 month ago |
kellnerp.substack.com | Peter Kellner
At last I have good news for Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer. Their government can do something important to improve our democracy without ruining the public finances. It’s worth doing for its own sake but, as it happens, it would help Labour (or, more accurately, remove a hidden anti-Labour bias in the present system). A pilot scheme is underway in Wales to test how it would work. The Electoral Commission is keen on the idea. What’s not to like?
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1 month ago |
kellnerp.substack.com | Peter Kellner
In less than four years Donald Trump will be gone. No president may serve more than two terms. On January 20, 2029, his successor will be sworn in. In these dark days, that’s a crumb of comfort. Well, maybe. The two-term limit is enshrined in the 22nd amendment to the US constitution. It was passed in 1951 and decrees that “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”. That seems pretty conclusive.
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1 month ago |
theneweuropean.co.uk | Peter Kellner
When Keir Starmer enters the Oval Office, Donald Trump is likely to boast about how popular he is and how strong his poll ratings are. Last Thursday he told reporters:“Let me just tell you that I have today the highest poll numbers I’ve ever had. I have today the highest poll numbers of any Republican president ever.”And in his speech given the same day at a dinner for Republican governors, he said: “I had an approval rating today of 71 and another one of 69.
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Is our two-party system on the way out? The past century has been punctuated by predictions that it would collapse. It hasn't. My new year Substack post discusses whether it now faces a more potent challenge than in the past. https://t.co/InxIafalVE
Elon Musk is talking to @Nigel_Farage about how to help @reformparty_uk. Could Farage become Prime Minister? Unlikely but not impossible. Here is what it would take. https://t.co/ZCv5lzjiNo
Twas the night(mare) before Christmas... Suppose Farage asked one of his team at Reform to set out a strategy for victory. This Substack post is my stab at the advice they could give him. https://t.co/ZCv5lzjiNo