Peter Turchin

Connecticut, Vienna

Contributor at Freelance

Cliodynamics, Social and Cultural Evolution. Project Leader @CSHVienna Blog: https://t.co/W7ChSL87kv

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Articles

No Revolution without Counter-Revolution

1 week ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

Any revolution is a struggle between the ruling elites and counter-elites. Once counter-elites gain power and attempt to build a new social order, the ci-devant (meaning former, or “have-been”) elites face a stark choice. They can accept defeat and acquiesce to downward social mobility, or they can turn into a sort of “counter-counter-elites” or, in more common terminology, counter-revolutionaries.
Demolishing and Rebuilding

2 weeks ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

The main idea in my previous post was that revolutions don’t create; they destroy. Rebuilding (if any) comes later. Historical analysis suggests that the destructive phase can be quite variable, with the modal length of around ten years. Sometimes it is shorter, but more often it is longer and the ensuing civil wars can last for decades. And sometimes, especially in early civilizations, the rebuilding phase never comes (think the Indus Civilization, or Cahokia).
We Will Demolish the World of Oppression

2 weeks ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

The first hundred days of Donald Trump’s second presidency richly deserve to be called “the hundred days that shook the world.” Even the greatest Trump detractors seem to be taken aback by the sheer intensity of chaos that was inflicted on us since January 20. Most attempts to make sense of it range between two extremes. One is that Trump is playing a deep game of five-dimensional chess. The opposite one is that he is simply a malevolent psychopath.
Cliodynamica by Peter Turchin

3 weeks ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

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Large Language Models' Expert-level Global History Knowledge Benchmark (HiST-LLM)

Dec 9, 2024 | neurips.cc | Jakob A. Hauser |Dániel Kondor |Jenny Reddish |Federica Villa |James Bennett |Pieter François | +3 more

Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have the potential to transform humanities and social science research, yet their history knowledge and comprehension at a graduate level remains untested. Benchmarking LLMs in history is particularly challenging, given that human knowledge of history is inherently unbalanced, with more information available on Western history and recent periods.
The deep historical forces that explain Trump’s win

Nov 29, 2024 | theguardian.com | Peter Turchin

In the days since the sweeping Republican victory in the US election, which gave the party control of the presidency, the Senate and the House, commentators have analysed and dissected the relative merits of the main protagonists – Kamala Harris and Donald Trump – in minute detail. Much has been said about their personalities and the words they have spoken; little about the impersonal social forces that push complex human societies to the brink of collapse – and sometimes beyond.
Trump’s Victory Ushers in a New Ruling Class

Nov 19, 2024 | bloomberg.com | Peter Turchin

The US is in the midst of a “revolutionary situation,” says the author of End Times. A future historian looking back at the social and economic trends of the past decade might be struck by how thoroughly dysfunctional the most powerful nation of Earth has become. Despite extraordinary technological change and respectable economic growth, the well-being of most Americans has been declining. Even many of the winners are deeply anxious about being able to pass success on to their children.
NEW for 10/8: On Mulberry election, Oscars and retaining doctors

Oct 8, 2024 | gwinnettforum.com | Elliott Brack |Jeff Gorke |Peter Turchin

· FIRST, WEEKS IN ADVANCE, Halloween decorations were out. Now, 2.5 months before Christmas, yes, you guessed it, the Christmas trees, decorations, ornaments, creatures, et. al., are looking at you in local stores. Makes you wonder what was in this space before the two holidays were featured.
End Times by Peter Turchin

Mar 6, 2024 | waterstones.com | Peter Turchin

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Books - Peter Turchin

Feb 19, 2024 | peterturchin.com | Peter Turchin

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