Peter Turchin

Connecticut, Vienna

Contributor at Freelance

Cliodynamics, Social and Cultural Evolution Project Leader, Complexity Science Hub, Vienna Blog: https://t.co/evOf8vxvUJ

Featured in: Favicon

bloomberg.com Favicon

nature.com Favicon

theatlantic.com Favicon

abc.net.au Favicon

entrepreneur.com Favicon

sagepub.com (+1) Favicon

theconversation.com Favicon

theglobeandmail.com + 50 more

Articles

Science of History and Counterfactuals

5 days ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

I am back home after a very intense and productive trip to Santa Fe. But in the meantime the world has made yet another step towards World War III … or at least that’s what some commentators say. Others claim that the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities by the USA was a “nothingburger.” It’s too early to tell (which is why I generally avoid commenting on news in real time).
How Revolutions Solve Debt Crises

2 weeks ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

It looks now that the spat between Elon Musk and Donald Trump was a short-lived tempest that quickly blew over. But the deep structural contradictions between various factions making up the MAGA coalition remain. The proximate cause for the falling-out between the two most powerful members of the coalition was, apparently, a disagreement on what to do about the enormous, and rapidly growing, US Federal debt.
Revolution Devours Its Children

3 weeks ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

Generally speaking, I avoid reacting to events as they occur. After all, the “value added” of this blog is not about the tumult on the surface, but deep currents beneath. The effect of deeper waters’ characteristics on hurricanes at the surface (Illustration by Natalie Renier, © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)Cliodynamica by Peter Turchin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Immiseration: Psychological and Social Dimensions

4 weeks ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

Broadly-based well-being is a key variable in the structural-demographic theory, while its opposite, popular immiseration, is one of the most important drivers for instability. (Remember, inequality is not a fundamental driver in this theory, but rather a useful proxy for joint development of immiseration and elite overproduction.)When discussing trends in immiseration, the tendency often is to focus exclusively on a single dimension.
How Do Societies End “End Times”?

1 month ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

My research over the past quarter-century has had two overarching themes. The first one is, how can we understand the Great Holocene Transformation—a dramatic increase in the scale and complexity of human societies during the Holocene (roughly, the last 10,000 years)? A book presenting an extended answer to this question (based on dynamic models and analysis of the Seshat Databank) will be published in September.
The French Wars of Religion II

1 month ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

In Part I we saw how massive population growth between 1450 and 1560 resulted in overpopulation, declining land per peasant, inflation of prices (especially for food), falling wages, and growing rents. These developments negatively affected the commoners, but were very lucrative for the elites (at least, initially). In other words (as I explain at length in End Times) this Malthusian mechanism turned on the “wealth pump” that took from the commoners and gave to the elites.
Jak powstają elity i czemu ich nadprodukcja prowadzi do krwawych rewolucji? [FRAGMENT KSIĄŻKI]

1 month ago | onet.pl | Peter Turchin

Przedstawiamy fragment książki "Czasy ostateczne. Elity, kontrelity i ścieżka dezintegracji politycznej" autorstwa Petera Turchina, wydawnictwo Prześwity, Warszawa 2024. Ponieważ władza jest ważną częścią tej opowieści, powrócimy do niej w kolejnych rozdziałach. Przedstawię w nich, jak socjologowie definiują władzę i posiadaczy władzy w różnych społeczeństwach – przeszłych i obecnych. Na razie jednak pójdziemy drogą na skróty. W Ameryce władza jest ściśle skorelowana z bogactwem.
The French Wars of Religion I

1 month ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

One reason (perhaps the most important one!) for my enduring interest in history, which eventually led me to Cliodynamics, was that my favorite book genre as I was growing up was historical romances. Today, now that I have a much better understanding of processes driving historical dynamics, I realize that the overwhelming majority of these novels took place during the disintegrative (crisis) periods.
Steve Bannon on Revolution

1 month ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

In my book End Times I wrote about Steve Bannon in several chapters, because I felt that he was an important figure in the MAGA movement, well worth paying attention to. Bannon first met Donald Trump in 2010. In 2016 he became the chief executive of Trump’s presidential campaign. In 2017 he was appointed as Trump’s chief strategist and senior adviser, but he resigned from this position in August of the same year.
No Revolution without Counter-Revolution

1 month ago | peterturchin.substack.com | Peter Turchin

Any revolution is a struggle between the ruling elites and counter-elites. Once counter-elites gain power and attempt to build a new social order, the ci-devant (meaning former, or “have-been”) elites face a stark choice. They can accept defeat and acquiesce to downward social mobility, or they can turn into a sort of “counter-counter-elites” or, in more common terminology, counter-revolutionaries.

Contact details

Emails

[email protected]

Socials & Sites

Try JournoFinder For Free

Search and contact over 1M+ journalist profiles, browse 100M+ articles, and unlock powerful PR tools.

Start Your 7-Day Free Trial →

X (formerly Twitter)

Followers: 38K
Tweets: 9K
DMs Open: No

No Tweets found.