Preston Caldwell

2 weeks ago | morningstar.com | David Sekera |Preston Caldwell |Michael Field |Susan Dziubinski

Susan Dziubinski: Hello. And welcome to Morningstar’s second-quarter 2025 US Stock Market Outlook. My name is Susan Dziubinski, and I’m an investment specialist with Morningstar.com and co-host ofThe Morning Filter podcast. Now, if there’s one thing that’s certain about investing in 2025, it’s that uncertainty has reached a fevered pitch. Uncertainty around tariffs, inflation, the economy, and artificial intelligence has led investors to sell risk-on assets in favor of risk-off investments.

3 weeks ago | morningstar.com | Preston Caldwell

Four key takeaways from our updated interest-rate and inflation forecast.

1 month ago | morningstar.com | Preston Caldwell |Ivanna Hampton

There’s any number of directions tariff rates could go—a small increase, a big increase, no increase—from here forward. And depending on that, there’s a lot of different directions that monetary policy could go. Given the experience of the last couple of years, people are now paying more attention to inflation and that means that this one-time increase could actually turn out to be more of a prolonged impact. It’s pretty unambiguous that tariffs have a negative impact on real GDP.