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Nov 27, 2024 | 
thoughtleadership.rbc.com | Shiplu Talukder |Rachel Battaglia
The asking rent for units1 across Canada fell for the first time in three years in October with big declines seen in the largest and most expensive cities of Toronto and Vancouver—providing some relief to lease hunters where rent unaffordability has been crushing. We see lower immigration levels easing rent demand in the year ahead.
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Nov 22, 2024 | 
thoughtleadership.rbc.com | Shiplu Talukder |Rachel Battaglia
Highlights:The Quebec government maintained its Budget 2024 projection for a large $11 billion budget deficit in 2024-25, but slightly increased its projected shortfall for 2025-26 to $9.2 billion from $8.5 billion. The fall economic statement contains $4.3 billion in total new spending over three years, falling short of $2.3 billion in rising revenue over the same period.
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Oct 31, 2024 | 
thoughtleadership.rbc.com | Rachel Battaglia
The Ontario government shaved its budget shortfall projection down to $6.6 billion in fiscal 2024-25—a $3.2 billion improvement from Budget 2024 released this spring. It also cut its 2025-26 deficit to $1.5 billion (from $4.6 billion) and expects a slightly larger surplus of $895 million in 2026-27.
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Oct 7, 2024 | 
thoughtleadership.rbc.com | Rachel Battaglia
The number of new listings increased across all major markets, except Montreal this September. The influx is continuing to build inventory—which is still hovering near the equivalent of four months of supply. Alongside weaker buying activity, the inventory accumulation is taking some of the steam out of most markets. Even with 75 basis points worth of interest rate cuts, we aren’t seeing buying activity pick up across the board just yet.
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Aug 15, 2024 | 
thoughtleadership.rbc.com | Rachel Battaglia
The latest interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada came at the end of July, doing little to entice buyers into the housing market. Resales pulled back modestly—dipping 0.7% between June and July at the national level—partially offsetting a 3.5% advance in June. Home resales remain largely static with softness concentrated in the Ontario and B.C. markets after the solid gain recorded in June.
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Jul 8, 2024 | 
thoughtleadership.rbc.com | Rachel Battaglia
Transactions increased across the board from May with more buyers coming to the housing market. But buying was far from enough to absorb the new inventory that’s been rebuilding for months. Growth in new listings continued to outpace sales in Canada’s more expensive markets, and inventories are continuing to grow—even in the busy Calgary market. We suspect many sellers are timing their move ahead of interest rate cuts with expectations of a rebound in demand.
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Jul 3, 2024 | 
thoughtleadership.rbc.com | Rachel Battaglia
Proof Point: There hasn’t been this much rental housing under construction in Canada in a generation—which is encouraging news given the acute supply shortages across the country. But even more construction will be needed as rental demand continues to rise rapidly in the years ahead. Rental housing starts surpassed 80,000 per year in 2022 and 2023, nearly doubling the average pre-pandemic (2015–2019) annual increase.
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May 15, 2024 | 
thoughtleadership.rbc.com | Rachel Battaglia
We saw a healthy number of new listings come to market this April—but even so, buyers remained on the sidelines across most major Canadian markets. Slower sales amid the influx of supply brought the available inventory back to pre-pandemic levels, relieving some of the supply-demand pressure in Canada’s housing market.
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Apr 16, 2024 | 
thoughtleadership.rbc.com | Rachel Battaglia
Budget 2024 showed a slightly worse bottom line throughout the federal government’s fiscal plan compared to previous estimates but kept the deficit within target. To achieve this, however, the government introduced several new taxes after a myriad of new spending was rolled out in recent weeks. The lack of spending restraint was offset by a surprise upside in revenue projections.
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Apr 11, 2024 | 
thoughtleadership.rbc.com | Rachel Battaglia
Proof Point: Straying from fiscal budget anchors negatively impacts governments’ credibility and makes their borrowing more expensive—potentially raising lending risks for bond investors. Any rise in the federal government’s funding costs will trickle down to businesses and households. Recent provincial budgets have generally painted a deteriorating fiscal picture. A softer economy and rapidly increasing expenses have weighed heavily on fiscal balances and inflated government debt.
