Raphael Cohen

1 week ago | lawfaremedia.org | Daniel Byman |Raphael Cohen

Editor’s Note: In Trump’s first 100 days, the United States and Iran have engaged in serious negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. RAND’s Raphael Cohen points out, however, that we have seen this movie before. Any feasible deal that administration officials propose will face some of the problems that plagued the deal that the Obama administration agreed to and that Trump abrogated in his first term.

1 month ago | letemps.ch | Raphael Cohen

2 min. de lecture Imaginez ceci: vous réservez un hôtel «avec vue sur mer». Une fois sur place, vous découvrez qu’il faut non seulement sortir sur le balcon, mais aussi se pencher dangereusement pour apercevoir un minuscule bout d’eau. Déception garantie. Eh bien, la marque employeur, c’est souvent la même chose. Une belle promesse, un storytelling léché, mais une réalité qui laisse à désirer. Résultat?

2 months ago | rand.org | Raphael Cohen

Over the last few weeks, a lot of ink has been spilled on the Trump administration's “day after” plans for Gaza. Less attention, though, has been focused on evaluating what might happen to Gaza if Israel and Hamas were to agree to a deal to end the current war after a final hostages-for-prisoners exchange. The short answer is that it's not good. On its present course, Hamas would likely rebuild, Gaza would remain in ruins, and a durable peace settlement would be all but impossible.

2 months ago | foreignpolicy.com | Raphael Cohen

Over the last few weeks, a lot of ink has been spilled on the Trump administration’s “day after” plans for Gaza. Less attention, though, has been focused on evaluating what might happen to Gaza if Israel and Hamas were to agree to a deal to end the current war after a final hostages-for-prisoners exchange. The short answer is that it’s not good. On its present course, Hamas would likely rebuild; Gaza would remain in ruins; and a durable peace settlement would be all but impossible.

2 months ago | foreignaffairs.com | Abigail McGowan |Joshua Kurlantzick |Emma Ashford |Raphael Cohen

At last week’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels, newly minted U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared that the position of the U.S. government was that Ukraine will not join NATO. Although greeted with horror by some in Washington and in European capitals, Hegseth’s remarks were in fact more a public statement of reality than a genuine change in policy.