-
4 days ago | 
wsj.com | Reuel Marc Gerecht |Ray Takeyh
It was long evident that Iran’s atomic-weapons program wouldn’t be disabled through diplomatic negotiations and porous compacts such as President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal. George W. Bush, Joe Biden and Donald Trump in his first term also chose to punt, hoping that a mix of sanctions would obviate the need for any U.S. military action. Mr. Biden made the bad bet that leaving sanctions unenforced would lead Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei content with staying a nuclear threshold state.
-
1 week ago | 
cfr.org | Ray Takeyh
Ray Takeyh is Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. With the targeted killings of numerous top military leaders, how much control do Iran’s supreme leader and his main regime factions still have over the country? More From Our Experts At this point, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appears to maintain sufficient control. But in the aftermath of this crisis, whenever that may be, his authority will likely be diminished.
-
1 week ago | 
fdd.org | Krystal Bermudez |Eric Edelman |Reuel Marc Gerecht |Ray Takeyh
There are many paths to regime change in Iran. In 2020, two of us (Edelman and Takeyh) wrote an essay in Foreign Affairs in which we outlined a way to topple the Islamic Republic. At that time, we assumed that the use of force was off the table and that outside powers could only gradually erode the regime’s sources of strength. Israel’s attack on Iran this month has introduced a new and volatile element into the mix, but the underlying logic remains the same.
-
1 week ago | 
foreignaffairs.com | Eric Edelman |Reuel Marc Gerecht |Ray Takeyh
There are many paths to regime change in Iran. In 2020, two of us (Edelman and Takeyh) wrote an essay in Foreign Affairs in which we outlined a way to topple the Islamic Republic. At that time, we assumed that the use of force was off the table, and that outside powers could only gradually erode the regime’s sources of strength. Israel’s attack on Iran this month has introduced a new and volatile element into the mix, but the underlying logic remains the same.
-
2 weeks ago | 
wsj.com | Reuel Marc Gerecht |Ray Takeyh
We don’t know exactly how successful the raid was, but the era of diplomatic nonproliferation is over. With Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic-missile facilities and senior officers and scientists, the age of diplomatic nonproliferation is over. It had been on life-support since North Korea went nuclear in 2006.
-
1 month ago | 
fdd.org | Reagan Easter |Reuel Marc Gerecht |Ray Takeyh
The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S. appear to be at an impasse. The temptation for President Trump will be to declare victory and pocket a status quo in which Tehran refrains from testing a nuke. The White House may even find comfort in a question senior officials in the Biden administration asked themselves: Why hasn’t Iran already gone nuclear? The Trump administration entered negotiations without clear positions on crucial issues, surprising and cheering the Iranian side.
-
1 month ago | 
wsj.com | Reuel Marc Gerecht |Ray Takeyh
The ayatollahs drag out the nuclear talks because they’re no longer scared of the American president. The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S. appear to be at an impasse. The temptation for President Trump will be to declare victory and pocket a status quo in which Tehran refrains from testing a nuke. The White House may even find comfort in a question senior officials in the Biden administration asked themselves: Why hasn’t Iran already gone nuclear?
-
1 month ago | 
flipboard.com | Reuel Marc Gerecht |Ray Takeyh
President Donald Trump has promised a “Golden Dome” that will protect the United States. But America’s rivals see the announcement last week of the plans for a new space-based missile defense system as provocation. Trump’s proposal, which as proposed remains years away from being operational, has …
-
2 months ago | 
fdd.org | Clifford D. May |Reuel Marc Gerecht |Ray Takeyh
Last week, Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, said that talks with the Trump administration appear to be going well. This tells host Cliff May that from an American perspective, the talks are going badly. President Trump has said that America’s goal is the “full dismantlement” of the regime’s nuclear weapons program, including its capacity to produce missiles that could deliver nuclear warheads to targets anywhere in the world.
-
2 months ago | 
politico.com | Reuel Marc Gerecht |Ray Takeyh
For too long, U.S. officials have fooled themselves about the nuclear-deterrent capacity of economic sanctions. Now that the Trump administration has decided to reopen negotiations, it’s important that they understand their adversary better, particularly the limits of sanctions to affect Iran’s behavior. To be sure, sanctions (along with chronic mismanagement and systemic corruption) have depleted Iran’s treasury and spurred inflation and unemployment.
