Richard Rose

2 months ago | electoralcalculus.co.uk | Richard Rose

Whether Reform is first or third depends on sampling fluctuations. What's important is that it has now cleared the first hurdle in a marathon race to win the next election. It is now a major party in the eyes of the voters rather than an also-ran third party. However, in a marathon the winner is not the runner ahead at the first lap but the one who is first at the finish line. Reform has lots more hurdles to clear before the finish line is reached in 2029.

Jan 23, 2025 | thetimes.com | Richard Rose

There is one certainty and one uncertainty about what the election of a Scottish parliament will produce a year from now. The certainty is that no party will come close to winning a majority. The uncertainty is how many of the six-plus parties winning seats will be needed to form a government. The Labour government imposed on Holyrood a semi-proportional electoral system designed to prevent any party, especially the Scottish Nationalists, readily winning an absolute majority.

Nov 29, 2024 | electoralcalculus.co.uk | Richard Rose

In a system of multi-party competition, if the Labour government's seats go down below what's needed for a parliamentary majority, it does not follow that the Conservative share goes up to the magic number of 326 seats in a 650-seat House of Commons. Even though Labour's loss of support in the polls could leave it with only 311 seats in the next House of Commons, it would still be 104 seats ahead of the Conservatives.

Nov 8, 2024 | ukandeu.ac.uk | Richard Rose |Alex Walker

Richard Rose explores the implications of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election for UK defence and security. The unambiguous victory of Donald Trump does more than disrupt American politics. It also disrupts the special relationship that British prime ministers have relied upon for almost a century become even more important since Brexit disrupted the UK’s relationship with Europe.

Oct 1, 2024 | electoralcalculus.co.uk | Richard Rose

The Tory MPs running for the party's leadership are subject to a single pressure: they must appeal to the party faithful in order to become party leader. However, whoever becomes leader of the opposition will be pulled two ways: he or she must also appeal to the British electorate. Keeping faith with the faithful is not enough to enable the party to recover from the worst electoral defeat in its history.