Robert Dietz

Washington, D.C., United States

Chief Economist at Eye On Housing (NAHB)

Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders (@nahbhome). Former Joint Committee on Taxation economist.

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Articles

Elevated Rates, Challenging Affordability Conditions Put a Damper on New Home Sales

2 days ago | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz

Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty sent more home buyers to the sidelines in May as housing affordability conditions remain challenging. Sales of newly built single-family homes declined 13.7% in May, falling back to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the slowest pace since October of last year, as mortgage rates averaged 6.83% in May.
The Fed Pause Continues

1 week ago | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz

Reflecting most forecasters’ expectations for the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve continued its post-2024 pause for federal funds rate cuts, retaining a target rate of 4.5% to 4.25%. The pause comes after a 100 basis point series of reductions in late 2024. Despite these cuts, mortgage rates have remained in the high 6% range.
Sharp Drop in Multifamily Production Brings Overall Housing Starts Down

1 week ago | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz

A sharp decline in multifamily production pushed overall housing starts down in May, while single-family output was essentially flat due to economic and tariff uncertainty along with elevated interest rates. Overall housing starts decreased 9.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.26 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012

1 week ago | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz

In a further sign of declining builder sentiment, the use of price incentives increased sharply in June as the housing market continues to soften. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in June, down two points from May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).
Construction Job Openings Steady in April

3 weeks ago | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz

The count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry held steady amid a slowdown for housing, per the April Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The number of open jobs for the overall economy increased slightly from 7.20 million in March to 7.39 million in April. This is notably smaller than the 7.62 million estimate reported a year ago and reflects a softened aggregate labor market.
Volatile Spring Selling Season Continues

1 month ago | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz

The Census estimate of new home sales posted an unexpected gain in April even as builders and consumers continue to deal with economic uncertainty, elevated interest rates and rising building material costs. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in April increased 10.9% to a 743,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised March number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
94% Multifamily Built-for-Rent Share

1 month ago | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz

According to NAHB analysis of quarterly Census data, the count of multifamily, for-rent housing starts increased during the first quarter of 2025. For the quarter, 88,000 multifamily residences started construction. Of this total, 83,000 were built-for-rent. This was almost 11% higher than the first quarter of 2024. The market share of rental units of multifamily construction starts was 94% for the first quarter.
Gains for Multifamily Missing Middle over Last Year

1 month ago | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz

The missing middle construction sector includes development of medium-density housing, such as townhouses, duplexes and other small multifamily properties. The multifamily segment of the missing middle (apartments in 2- to 4-unit properties) has generally disappointed since the Great Recession. However, there has been a noticeable uptick for this type of housing construction in recent data. For the first quarter of 2025, there were 5,000 2- to 4-unit housing unit construction starts.
Single-Family Home Size Trending Higher

1 month ago | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz

An expected impact of the virus crisis was a need for more residential space, as people used homes for more purposes including work. Home size correspondingly increased in 2021 as interest rates reached historic lows. However, as interest rates increased in 2022 and 2023, and housing affordability worsened, the demand for home size has trended lower.
Slight Gains for Townhouse Construction

1 month ago | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz

Townhouse construction expanded more than 2 percent on a year-over-year basis per data from the first quarter of 2025. According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, during the first quarter of 2025, single-family attached starts totaled 43,000. Over the last four quarters, townhouse construction starts totaled a strong 175,000 homes, which is 2% higher than the prior four-quarter period (171,000).