Roger Bootle

London

Columnist at The Telegraph

Roger Bootle is one of the City of London’s best-known economists, and is the Chairman of Capital Economics.

Articles

Rachel Reeves's tax dilemma is about to get ugly

1 week ago | telegraph.co.uk | Roger Bootle

But there have been some interesting market movements which have nothing to do with the spending review. The release of labour market statistics covering April and May showed a big drop in employment and an easing back in the rate of pay inflation. This shouldn't be altogether surprising given that these numbers refer to the period immediately after the increases in employers' National Insurance contributions took effect.
Reeves has left herself with only one way of funding her spending promises

2 weeks ago | yahoo.com | Roger Bootle

This Wednesday, Rachel Reeves will be in the firing line once again. The event in question will not be a Budget, or even a mini-Budget, but rather a spending review. But such is the pressure on the public finances that the political and economic ramifications will be significant. On the face of it, this review is meant to spell out the details of departmental spending within the overall totals that have already been set to 2028/29 for current day-to-day spending and to 2029/30 for capital spending.
Rachel Reeves has made tax rises inevitable

2 weeks ago | telegraph.co.uk | Roger Bootle

Over and above this, the OBR could conceivably reduce its forecast for productivity growth. Believe it or not, it has persistently been optimistic about productivity growth, only to be repeatedly proved wrong. At some point, it may well throw in the towel. A reduction of only 0.1pc per year would raise the annual borrowing forecast by about £10bn.
Bond markets are waking up to Trump’s chaotic tariffs regime

3 weeks ago | aol.co.uk | Roger Bootle

If you didn’t already fully understand the meaning of “uncertainty”, last week should have provided you with plenty of learning material. The concept of uncertainty relates to a situation when there is no known calculus for anticipating future outcomes. This contrasts with the concept of risk – when you can gauge the probabilities. Perhaps the purest case of risk concerns the chance of a ball sent spinning by a roulette wheel landing on a particular number.
Bond markets are waking up to Trump's chaotic tariffs regime

3 weeks ago | telegraph.co.uk | Roger Bootle

Admittedly, if Trump's tariffs are blocked, then there would be much less upward pressure on inflation and that would make it easier for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner and by more than would otherwise have been the case. Ordinarily, the bond market would like this. But if Trump is prevented from using tariffs as a way of closing the American trade deficit, then he may well want to substitute policies that would cause the dollar to fall substantially.
Roger Bootle — Editorial Articles | Cognitive World — COGNITIVE WORLD

1 month ago | cognitiveworld.com | Roger Bootle

Roger Bootle is not afraid to think and say unconventional things. He is that rare phenomenon: a professional economist who thinks that Brexit is a Good Idea. Indeed, he belongs to a group called Economists for Brexit, now renamed as Economists for Free Trade, which argues for a no-deal Brexit. Read More
Calum Chace — Editorial Articles | Cognitive World — COGNITIVE WORLD

1 month ago | cognitiveworld.com | Roger Bootle |Yuval Harari

We’re all wondering how to survive the virus: how to stay alive, and also solvent. Assuming we manage that, what will be its lasting impacts? 1. Appreciation of exponentialsThe rising death tolls in many countries has been shocking to watch. Many people are getting their first up-close-and-personal view of the astonishing power of exponential growth. Assuming we manage that, what will be its lasting impacts? Read More
The AI Economy — Editorial Articles | Cognitive World — COGNITIVE WORLD

1 month ago | cognitiveworld.com | Roger Bootle

Roger Bootle is not afraid to think and say unconventional things. He is that rare phenomenon: a professional economist who thinks that Brexit is a Good Idea. Indeed, he belongs to a group called Economists for Brexit, now renamed as Economists for Free Trade, which argues for a no-deal Brexit. Read More
Starmer is kidding himself if he thinks cosying up to the EU will boost Britain

1 month ago | yahoo.com | Roger Bootle

Monday sees a summit in London between the UK and the EU which could lead to what the British government terms “an EU reset”. What should we expect? A good deal of what is going to be discussed concerns defence. The likely agreement here is largely going to be formalising the existing situation. Britain and France have been leading the attempt to establish a “Coalition of the Willing” to support Ukraine.
Starmer is kidding himself if he thinks cosying up to the EU will boost Britain

1 month ago | telegraph.co.uk | Roger Bootle

Moreover, a removal of checks on British food exports to the EU is likely to come at a higher price, namely British agreement to so-called "dynamic alignment". This means adopting all new EU regulations with regard to the production and movement of food and food products.