Roger Bootle

London

Columnist at The Telegraph

Roger Bootle is one of the City of London’s best-known economists, and is the Chairman of Capital Economics.

Articles

Bond markets are waking up to Trump’s chaotic tariffs regime

6 days ago | aol.co.uk | Roger Bootle

If you didn’t already fully understand the meaning of “uncertainty”, last week should have provided you with plenty of learning material. The concept of uncertainty relates to a situation when there is no known calculus for anticipating future outcomes. This contrasts with the concept of risk – when you can gauge the probabilities. Perhaps the purest case of risk concerns the chance of a ball sent spinning by a roulette wheel landing on a particular number.
Bond markets are waking up to Trump's chaotic tariffs regime

6 days ago | telegraph.co.uk | Roger Bootle

Admittedly, if Trump's tariffs are blocked, then there would be much less upward pressure on inflation and that would make it easier for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner and by more than would otherwise have been the case. Ordinarily, the bond market would like this. But if Trump is prevented from using tariffs as a way of closing the American trade deficit, then he may well want to substitute policies that would cause the dollar to fall substantially.
Roger Bootle — Editorial Articles | Cognitive World — COGNITIVE WORLD

2 weeks ago | cognitiveworld.com | Roger Bootle

Roger Bootle is not afraid to think and say unconventional things. He is that rare phenomenon: a professional economist who thinks that Brexit is a Good Idea. Indeed, he belongs to a group called Economists for Brexit, now renamed as Economists for Free Trade, which argues for a no-deal Brexit. Read More
Calum Chace — Editorial Articles | Cognitive World — COGNITIVE WORLD

2 weeks ago | cognitiveworld.com | Roger Bootle |Yuval Harari

We’re all wondering how to survive the virus: how to stay alive, and also solvent. Assuming we manage that, what will be its lasting impacts? 1. Appreciation of exponentialsThe rising death tolls in many countries has been shocking to watch. Many people are getting their first up-close-and-personal view of the astonishing power of exponential growth. Assuming we manage that, what will be its lasting impacts? Read More
The AI Economy — Editorial Articles | Cognitive World — COGNITIVE WORLD

2 weeks ago | cognitiveworld.com | Roger Bootle

Roger Bootle is not afraid to think and say unconventional things. He is that rare phenomenon: a professional economist who thinks that Brexit is a Good Idea. Indeed, he belongs to a group called Economists for Brexit, now renamed as Economists for Free Trade, which argues for a no-deal Brexit. Read More
Starmer is kidding himself if he thinks cosying up to the EU will boost Britain

2 weeks ago | yahoo.com | Roger Bootle

Monday sees a summit in London between the UK and the EU which could lead to what the British government terms “an EU reset”. What should we expect? A good deal of what is going to be discussed concerns defence. The likely agreement here is largely going to be formalising the existing situation. Britain and France have been leading the attempt to establish a “Coalition of the Willing” to support Ukraine.
Starmer is kidding himself if he thinks cosying up to the EU will boost Britain

2 weeks ago | telegraph.co.uk | Roger Bootle

Moreover, a removal of checks on British food exports to the EU is likely to come at a higher price, namely British agreement to so-called "dynamic alignment". This means adopting all new EU regulations with regard to the production and movement of food and food products.
Starmer’s trade deals will do nothing to fix Britain’s broken economy

3 weeks ago | aol.co.uk | Roger Bootle

After a torrid time since July’s election, last week must have seemed glorious for both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. Vindication and deliverance at last!Not only did the Bank of England announce an interest rate cut, perhaps with the prospect of more cuts to come, but the UK managed to secure trade agreements with India and the US. Is this the turning of the corner that both have been longing for? The interest rate reduction, although welcome, is no game-changer.
Starmer’s trade deals will do nothing to fix Britain’s broken economy

3 weeks ago | yahoo.com | Roger Bootle

After a torrid time since July’s election, last week must have seemed glorious for both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. Vindication and deliverance at last!Not only did the Bank of England announce an interest rate cut, perhaps with the prospect of more cuts to come, but the UK managed to secure trade agreements with India and the US. Is this the turning of the corner that both have been longing for? The interest rate reduction, although welcome, is no game-changer.
Starmer's trade deals will do nothing to fix Britain's broken economy

3 weeks ago | telegraph.co.uk | Roger Bootle

Of course, there is the predictable carping from all the usual suspects about what damage will be done to our economy from opening ourselves up to imports from India and America. We all know the old adage that there are only two inevitabilities in life, namely death and taxes. In fact, there are three. The third is opposition to tariff-free trade from producer groups, which fear competition from overseas.