Ryan Gest

Jun 4, 2024 | thehill.com | Ryan Gest

The Decision Desk HQ Forecast Model illustrates possibilities, not certainties. It serves as a tool to understand the range of potential electoral outcomes. With less than six months until Nov. 5, this explainer kicks off a series that will provide qualitative context to our quantitative projections. Our latest update finds that if the election were held today, Donald Trump would have a 56 percent chance of defeating Joe Biden.

Feb 23, 2024 | thehill.com | Milan Singh |Ryan Gest |Zach Donnini |Havish Netla

Barring some extraordinary event, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be running against each other again this November. According to public surveys, a substantial share of the electorate simply does not believe that this will be the case. Could this dynamic be influencing early national head-to-head polling between Biden and Trump? More than 550 polls have been tracked since January 2023 in Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s polling average, and Trump currently leads Joe Biden by 2.2 points nationally.

Feb 8, 2024 | thehill.com | Ryan Gest |Milan Singh

America is in the midst of a unique electoral era marked by nine consecutive presidential elections — 1988 to 2020 — where neither the Democratic nor Republican candidate has secured a double-digit victory margin in the popular vote. This ongoing streak is the longest in the history of the current two-party system.